The article Jean-Dominique Merchet "Syrie : Poutine gagne son pari, mais quel pari ?", published in the French publication "L Opinion", the expert thinks about how the situation will develop in Syria after the announced ceasefire.
One thing is for sure: even if the ceasefire comes into force, the war in Syria will continue. As the countries belonging to the International group friends of Syria, and the United States with Russia have brought some important groups from the effects of the ceasefire. This is of course "Islamic state" (banned in Russia), but also the al-Nusra Front (banned in Russia), which is the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda and other "terrorist" organizations. Fuzzy definition of the latter can create serious problems if you do not believe that any group has violated the ceasefire, a de facto "terrorist". But the biggest problem is related to an-Nusra.
Unlike the Islamic state, which controls well-known territory, ""Front EN-Nusra" is not present in any clearly defined areas, the group is represented on all fronts, from Deraa to Aleppo, extending to the suburbs of Damascus and the countryside in Idlib province," said the geographer Balans Fabrice (Fabrice Balanche). "Al-Nusra" is not only in Alliance with other groups (for example, "Ahrar al-sham"), but also closely intermingled with them on earth. In these circumstances, it is difficult to separate friends from enemies. Areas where there is "An-Nusra" reach for the bombing, which may affect other moderate militants or Islamists. "The opposition would benefit if separated from the Syrian branch of al-Qaida and began to fight with her, but it will only lead to a fratricidal war between them," says Belans.
From a military point of view, the cessation of hostilities is an important advantage of Moscow, Assad and his allies, who wrested territory from the militants. Without fear of counterattack, they can strengthen its position and restore combat power. Given the fact that the return of the territories under the control of the opposition, is beyond the capabilities of the Syrian army, which is still recovering, and Hezbollah and Iranian militias are ready to lose hundreds of men in heavy fighting.
In the middle East, Moscow and Washington are behaving as if they divided the zones of influence: Syria remains Moscow, Iraq – for the United States. It is hardly possible to imagine a new Yalta, which resulted in two super powers set in chaos-torn region. The bipolar world died as well as the American sverhderzhavnomu. "The regional powers are no longer listening to Moscow and Washington, the younger brothers do not listen to seniors," says head of Middle East Paris Institute of Political science Bernard El Buzz (Bernard El Ghoul). "I'm not sure Assad is listening to Putin anymore than Netanyahu listens to Obama," he said. "The great powers no longer pulling all the strings".
The international system consists of several levels: global (the great powers and the UN), regional (States such as Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia) and local (various actors of the Syrian conflict). They constantly interact, thus none of the levels can impose their own logic another. Without building all three levels it is difficult to hope for a political settlement.
In this respect, the statement that Assad will participate in the elections on 13 April, without doubt, had not been agreed with Moscow. Not to mention the fact that holding elections in the war-torn country seems to be a very extravagant pastime, the very date of the elections will come very soon. It will come much faster than indicated in the draft peace settlement that was discussed involved countries.
Russian-American Declaration led to collateral damage in the face of Europe, and especially France, which was left behind . More than five years, French diplomacy has put a lot of effort to settle the Syrian crisis based on the moderate opposition, criticizing the spinelessness of Barack Obama. Laurent Fabius, who resigned as head of the Foreign Ministry, leaves to his heir, Jean-Marc Ayrault, France, which is outside of the game.