Monday, January 18, 2016

Moscow speeds up the interchange. Kiev on the eve of a shock... They have shed the blood of the Donbass?

Moscow speeds up the interchange. Kiev on the eve of a shock... 
They have shed the blood of the Donbass? 

The Ukrainian tragedy is close to its denouement. In the past month, Moscow has sharply intensified in the Ukrainian direction. The reasons for such activation, we can assume the following. First, Moscow saw a fundamental weakness of the junta, a growing split within the elites because of the lack of domestic sources of Finance and growing shaft of the internal problems that result can only be the disappearance of Ukraine in its present form, with political and geographical maps of the world.

Secondly, events in the world, particularly in Syria, also showed Moscow that actually the West is not as strong as it is trying to show. The West currently does not exist in the form of a single center of authority, power and projection of military power. The willingness of the West to compromise as well as in Ukraine due to increasing internal problems, the collapse of the first monolithic elite due to the decrease of sources of income and the weakness of the military machine. In addition, the West unlike Russia lost a clear understanding of strategic goals both in Europe and the middle East. And in a situation when world events began to develop rapidly, such confusion began to lead to loss of pace and strategic dominance. Thus, the West is forced to adapt to those, who sets the pace, and is today Russia and partly China.

Concentration in October-December 2015 on the Syrian track has allowed Moscow to seriously increase its geopolitical weight, resulting in to benefit to solve their many other problems, one of the most important of which is the Ukrainian crisis. And now, at the end of 2015 Moscow once again took over the Ukrainian issue. First, Vladimir Putin on 26 December 2015, has appointed former speaker of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, a permanent member of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Boris Gryzlov, Plenipotentiary representative of Russia in the Tripartite contact group to resolve the situation in Donbass is Azamat Kulmuhametov that have never had any serious hardware weight in Moscow and served as the representative of Russia in the Tripartite contact group since April of last year.

And immediately after the Christmas holidays, on January 11, Boris Gryzlov visited Kiev, where he met with Petro Poroshenko. Details of the meeting are not known yet, which is quite natural — so it was really key things. However, as noted by the Director of the Kiev center of political researches and conflictology Mikhail Pogrebinsky "Gryzlov was to meet Kuchma. He was able to see him in Minsk in 20 hours. I have no doubt that the meeting with Poroshenko, reported by the media, took place. Without the invitation of the Ukrainian President he could not come — it is quite obvious. Poroshenko has interest to change the format of interaction with Putin. The situation in Ukraine is critically deteriorating, and the continuation of this insane policy pursued by the current government in Kiev is not something that is fraught with a catastrophe for Ukrainian citizens, and challenges for the current leaders of the country."

Gryzlov's visit to Kiev was the first cold shower for acromatica, because it showed them how their fictional mythology of the process is far from the real situation. The second sobering and breaking templates acronico event was a six-hour meeting of the Russian presidential aide Vladislav Surkov, Deputy Secretary of state Victoria Nuland near Kaliningrad, which until now also there is no information except for a pair of ushers comments to the press, which, nevertheless, also provide food for thought, if you read them carefully.

Before the meeting with Surkov Nuland said the purpose of the meeting: "the First challenge is to stop the killing of people so that you can move on to other parts of the Minsk agreements, including a political solution, the real elections in accordance with Ukrainian legislation in accordance with OSCE standards, the withdrawal of foreign military equipment and military and regain control of borders". That is, freezing of the military conflict, then elections under the new legislation (that is, federalization of the country) and only then return control over the borders. And if in the case of Gryzlov template broke that the representative of the "belligerent" Russia freely and have arrived in "besieged" Kiev, the meeting near Kaliningrad actually brought ukroptika to a state of white heat — the fate of Ukraine was decided without the Ukraine.

"The essence of the negotiations is quite clear. As justified and alert the media of the Junta. And the Junta. The Poroshenko regime is very concerned about the rapprochement between Washington and Moscow — and not on those positions that were originally voiced by the US, to the Minsk agreements related skeptical," — said Ukrainian expert Mikhail Onufrienko.That is, the situation is repeated and the Munich partition of Czechoslovakia, when a delegation from Prague left behind the doors of the conference and called only when the country's fate has already been decided by the high Contracting parties.

"The past in the Kaliningrad region, the negotiations between Vladislav Surkov and Victoria Nuland have already been named constructive brainstorming. Apparently, the purpose of the storm was the agreement on measures that forced Poroshenko to carry out what he signed. The only way the US in General and Victoria Nuland in particular can "triumphantly" withdraw from the Ukrainian conflict", — said Gevorg mirzayan in the article "Victoria needed to win" and explains why.

"The Visit Of Nuland the evidence is very simple and completely logical trend — the exhaustion of the West against sabotage by Kiev, the process of resolving the situation in Donbas gradually turns into the desire of Ukraine to punish. Victoria Nuland, there is no reason to be stubborn and hinder the signing of these agreements. The fact that entrusted to her the direction she is to date failed. Independence has not led to the creation in Ukraine of anti-Russian "beacon of progress" is more of a universal bogey, which is actively used by Putin to promote his ideas on the post-Soviet space. Sanctions against Russia also didn't work — their goal (forcing Moscow to return to the old matrix of Russian-Western relations) was not achieved. And flying chips seriously weakened the U.S. influence on Russia.

And, finally, proclaimed by Americans from Russia's isolation has not worked — after Putin's "horse step" at the beginning of the Syrian operations, including demonstration of readiness to fight extremism on the side legally legitimate regimes, third world countries began to actively seek the favor of Putin. And faced a number of challenges Europe is not only actively looking for the common denominator with Moscow on the Ukraine issue, but also tries to end sanctions war and begin to build normal relations with the Eastern neighbour".

This trend did not remain unnoticed and in Kiev: "If the result of the Minsk-3 we will sell a wide autonomy of Donbass, when you change the Constitution you need to immediately give wide autonomy to all regions of Ukraine. So if you walk, so walk. We will facilitate the solution of future problems in one fell swoop. Otherwise, then again you will need to change the Constitution in Galicia, Transcarpathia, Volhynia, Polesie, Kiev, Podolia, Sloboda, Odessa until the broad autonomy of Bobrynets and Shepetivka. We also at one fell swoop solve all the problems of the present and the future. Each region has its court, its army and police, their relationship with the outside world, their holidays. And everyone will be happy. However, it is unclear why Kiev the Verkhovna Rada and the President, and what kind of independent Ukraine".

In conditions when Moscow is stepping up the pace, quite naturally, as suggested, for example,Rostislav Ishchenko, that "the U.S. is groping towards a compromise and try to make some concessions. This is not the first instance in the last three months it already the second meeting between Nuland and Surkov, before Kerry flew to Sochi, the Americans tried to agree on how to close the conflict and try to save face. Both times these proposals were not so, what can make Russia. After these meetings, the U.S. changed its position on Ukraine, has made statements that Kyiv must abide by the agreement.

This is echoed by Biden in Kiev. Now for the first time Poroshenko said that the Minsk agreements should start with constitutional reform. The fact that the US has changed position and they began to pressure on Kiev, it is a fact. It can be assumed that during this meeting were discussed possible joint pressure on Kiev, as the U.S. will make its Kiev "the client" fit into the city."

Well, the latest news from Kiev only confirm the validity of the new revitalizing Moscow on the Ukrainian direction and convergence of all major stakeholders (Russia, USA, Germany, France) to eliminate "the Kiev cauldron": "Peter A. servenet just to push through Parliament the notorious amendments to the Constitution "on the special status of the occupied Donbass". DePuy has announced a General fee — though sick, though dead, but in under the dome. Its — BPP-shnye and "Narrante" — break through the knee, compromising and threatening to sit next to the Korban.

The faction of Tymoshenko offered the post. Small three. But a lot of. And she needs one — but the big five. But tomorrow. In General, a severe case. But others lure the Cougar. They say that Lyashko painful to watch: drowning in her own saliva. But I decided to radically raise the stakes to the last. On substantive negotiations is not only "Samopomich". Although it is not clear how much more she can withstand such a massive siege."Appblock" already bubbling with happiness: all returned, they are again in business and in profits. In General, all the same rotten options, and in the later Kuchma and Yanukovych early".

That is, everything goes to the fact that this year Russia will close the problem of Ukraine, and the West will remove sanctions against Russia, about the high probability and immediately after the negotiations ended and Nuland said the state Department coordinator for sanctions Daniel fried. That's only taking into account the corruption of the Ukrainian elite must realize that the resulting solution is temporary. It is still tactical in nature, as even a Federal Ukraine, but facing West is not the solution.

Strategic will be the only such decision of the Ukrainian issue, when the country will chair is really Pro-Russian elites, and not the corrupt elite "Opalocka", but these elites are not visible even on the horizon. Accordingly, the case could again come down to the proverbial gas business, when the Ukrainian elite will earn on Russian gas and to Finance anti-Russian media and anti-Russian moods in society. But whether the shed blood of the Donbass?

Yuri Little Sheep


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