Is this the Last chance for APU ?
For more than a year, the Americans were preparing their Ukrainian army (APU). From different parts of the world they sent trainers and advisers. Gathered from around Europe outdated military equipment was sent. Assistance food and uniforms donated. And all for what would, when the time X comes , the APU would fulfill its main task - to have been destroyed by the Russian army.
A long life for the APU was never expected, it was clear from the outset. This can not be a military organization, so the disregard for their relevance to their own soldiers there for a long time never was in the plan. Active military often do not have the basic necessities, forget about the wounded as soon as it becomes clear that they do not return to duty, the prisoners for the government in Kiev simply does not exist, and the demobilized are alone with their problems, with no hope of help from the authorities. Old appliances deteriorating rapidly, and the reliable substitute for morale to serve more alcoholic beverages. But all this does not matter. APU is the main force of their mass and it's unable to win.
Under their gun are more than 230 000 people. The US plan was simple and straightforward. We must at all costs to force Russia to destroy the APU. The United States understands that so many armed forces to defeat a single blow will fail. For the victory, Russia will have to shed a lot of blood as the Russian soldiers and civilians. And even if the APU as a centralized organization will cease to exist after 2 days, it is time to give the thousands of martyrs on the altar of the "independence", and tens of thousands of potential guerrillas.
All the resources of Russia will be linked Ukrainian conflict, and, most importantly, the wall of contradictions between the EU and Russia will be irresistible. The world outside the US will be able to dispose of the EAEC on your own. There is only one obstacle to the implementation of the plan - Russia does not want to fight. Helps neither with the daily shelling of the city of Donbass, and no periodic attempts to organize against APU a tactical offensive.
The armed forces of New Russia (BCH) has a held strong enough that would have almost guaranteed to fight off any attacks by the APU. Any attack other than a large-scale attack with all forces and all available weapons APU. Of course, VSN can win in this case, but guarantees can not give anybody. It turns out that the only way for the APU to try to implement the things needed for which they were could have created - a full-scale offensive against the republic of New Russia was if NATO stepped in.
And if a collision violation Minsk Agreement is solved by means of large-scale bloody provocations in which he accused the militia, the success, at least partially, their most effective offensive is still highly questionable. There are, of course, the second option - to continue provocations and wait. But APU have a shelf life. August 17 ended the 6th wave of mobilization. For 2 months instead of the planned 25,000 recruits by crook managed to summon only 13 thousand.
And in September, should be transferred to the reserve soldiers of the 3rd wave of mobilization (the most experienced and shelled). Even maintenance current population for the APU becomes a problem. As wishes to be free cannon fodder have ended. Only large-scale fighting as a delay will allow demobilization, and, thanks to martial law and the accompanying hysteria in the media, to adequately conduct the last, 7th wave mogilizatsii. If the attack does not happen until the autumn slush, it will have to be postponed until December.
And December 2015 - the most interesting in the number of scheduled events this month: - Earn primarily energy bridge to the Crimea, Ukraine will lose one of the major levers of pressure on Russia; - enter into force on the association agreement Ukraine and EU - Russia will act against kontrsanktsii Ukraine - will be decided for a free trade agreement between the EU and the United States (TTIP), and as a consequence, the EU finally determine its position with regard to Russia; - come winter, and the specter of the collapse of the energy Ukraine is haunting power grids now; - complete term given to Minsk implementation agreements; - Ukraine will pay Russian 3 billion. Eurobond, or will default; - the economic situation in Ukraine is significantly worse than the present. Each of these items allows Russia to act more freely. In addition, by January 2016 will increase the demoralization of both MAT, and the civilian population of Ukraine.
That said, if in January the BCH, with the support of the North Wind, undertake a large-scale attack - the US does not get half the benefits that would have been theirs, offensive VSN happen this summer. So the choice of the Americans ( namely, they make decisions for the government in Kiev) small: a great provocation and a serious offensive APU until late September or despicable, under cover of darkness, fire and wait for the city of Donbass, betting that the winter 2016 APU will still be able to resist. Good Master