Ukrainian Economist notes that one should not confuse the default, which occurred in Russia in 1998, with the probability of default in Ukraine, in Russia defaulted first, and then later collapse of the ruble, while in Ukraine the situation is almost the opposite. "We already after Maidana was the de facto default and as a result, the collapse of the hryvnia by almost 275%. Therefore, if the Finance Ministry and officially announce a default, it is likely to be very short-term growth rate, but is not as critical and not so terrible, "- commented Alexander Okhrimenko. The real danger, in his opinion, lies elsewhere.
Ukraine's economy after the default face serious consequences over which need to work for many years. "Default - is official recognition of the Ukrainian world pariah in the financial market for the next 5-10 years. On investments in general, you can forget, but it's not so bad. After the official default all the non-resident banks will close all credit lines to Ukrainian banks. This applies to the Ukrainian" daughters "of foreign banks. This means that even ordinary foreign economic contacts export and import will be blocked or will be seriously implemented," - said president of the Ukrainian think tank.
Kiev does not stop trying to negotiate with creditors on restructuring of the public debt, but they have been reluctant to accept the proposals of Ukraine, considering them inadmissible. Earlier, Ukrainian authorities have already made it clear that in the absence of a compromise announced a technical default as a result of which the creditors will lose all money invested.
Over the past year and a half, including as a result of the military conflict in the Donbass, Ukraine was in a deep financial and economic crisis. The country recorded a sharp drop in GDP, the serious financial and budgetary difficulties.