Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Kiev: freezes the situation in hope that the UN will be able to solve the crisis...

Kiev: freezes the situation in hope that the UN will be able to solve the crisis...

May 27, 2015

At the moment, the balance of the situation in the Donbass shifted clearly in the Kiev government, but its members are struggling to regain its former position


An analysis of recent events on the international scene shows that Russia's attempts to prove that the West must recognize their responsibility for the civil war in Ukraine and to stop practicing the use of Ukraine against Russia, in general, are not supported by the other side. Opponents of Russia continue to put an ultimatum and accused of violating the principles of international law. In this regard, all of the latest meeting of the UN Security Council, which discussed the situation in Ukraine, were around one scenario - EU diplomats expressed moderately negatively against Russia, the US and its satellites sharply condemned Russia and China reacted to anything non-binding declarations, and Russia was justified or he insisted. Therefore we hope that the UN will be able to solve the crisis fades away, as any attempt to put its position to the vote, would in any case blocked veto the US or Russia.
Against the background of active hostilities in the Donbass is unlikely that the situation can return to the practical implementation of the agreements Minsk - the parties have to some extent come to terms with the mutual attacks.

Against the background of active hostilities in the Donbass is unlikely that the situation can return to the practical implementation of the agreements Minsk - the parties have to some extent come to terms with the mutual attacks. Perhaps in the future attempt to follow through new consultations come to new agreements that will depend on the course of hostilities. There will be a variety of diplomatic consultations, which are in addition to the questions about the exchange of prisoners and the withdrawal of heavy weapons, will be reduced to the fact that Russia will offer different options for compromise, but the US and its allies will continue to demand the surrender.

Russia is likely in the near future is expected to further sanctions. In parallel with these measures, advocates an aggressive line, led by the United States will insist on expanding the West's military involvement in the events in Ukraine and bringing to an anti-Russian actions of other states. The war has long gone beyond the only Ukrainian problems, so extension of the war would follow logically from the aggressive line of the United States.

The situation in relation to the truce after the "Minsk-2", 15 February, is developing, it is not in favor of "the Kiev European power," which is the second time during the war suffered a political and military defeat. Militia counterattacked after unsuccessful attempts to break the APU and the National Guard under "Russian terrorists." Staying in the human, technical and information minority militia of New Russia was successful in the offensive, which required tremendous courage fighters and residents of the unrecognized republics. His main result - forced negotiations "Kiev European power," which pulled in the process and the western countries, which they tried to escape, hoping to solve their problems only through Ukrainian politicians. The intervention of John Kerry , Francois Hollande ,Angela Merkel on the situation in south-eastern Ukraine, the Kiev demonstrates the inability of the "political elite" or to protect "European democracy" or build a "new European state."

The media war "Kiev European power" plays on the domestic front, where jingoistic projects "cyborgs Ukrainian airport" and advocates "debaltsevskogo Stalingrad" collapsed, and on the external front, when not loyal republics Novorossia Western media, for example, The Sunday Times, The New York Times on February 22, criticized "the Kiev authorities" for incompetence and corruption, and the "armed forces of Ukraine" - for looting and violence. But a media value of these lesions is more dangerous for the "Kiev authorities" in changing the consciousness of the majority of Ukrainian citizens, who have seen the conflict only "terrorists Russian" and "Ukrainian liberators." Myths about the destruction of "Russian armies" do not hold themselves Ukrainian military have been in the area of ​​the ATO, and their relatives, Ukraine begins to see through the lies of propaganda.

The defeat of the "Kiev authorities" set before them the problem of urgent redress. Need Display victory, because the collapse of the "party of war" and the expansion of the army could launch a mechanism of self-destruction when the power begins to understand within themselves, using various factions controlled security forces not to fight in the east, and directly in Kiev.

The leaders of the republics did not look the undisputed leader precisely because of "dependence" of the people "from above" that creates "the Kiev authorities' room for maneuver.

Model the behavior of the Ukrainian leadership readable - a new offensive to achieve victory, or the "new anti-Ukrainian speech in Kiev," as scary Ukrainian nationalist press. This tension on the front lines continue to Ukrainian division did not take off from the front and moved to the capital (remember how a noise in early February in Kiev 50 people "aydarovtsev" and if will drive thirty thousand?).Apparently, therefore, attacks and strikes on the positions of militias and the cities of Donbass saved.

In the republics of New Russia is also a huge problem.Firstly, it is a huge loss in the most combat-ready units, which are a key issue of command. Second, the continuing humanitarian catastrophe (people do not receive salaries from October, financial and other systems no scientific elite, which is famous for the region, leaving the militia or run into other countries, gumkonvoi "lost in the steppes"). The flow of refugees in Russia keeps growing. This is now the media (including Russian) sparsely cover the internal situation in the republics. Third, political uncertainty persists in the republics. 

"The Russian leadership" aims to "push back under the Donbass Ukraine" and now this process has gained new forms, there was a requirement to review the provisions of the Constitution of Ukraine, which should provide guarantees "certain territories of Donbass"; conditionally legitimized militia - the Minsk Agreement on new "Kiev government" agree on the creation of the militia in the eastern territories, allowing the militia to get out of the status of illegal armed groups. However, this situation still looks too abstract and unreal.

The environment is not only the militia, but also of the citizens of the republic, there is no understanding of the purpose of the war itself. They do not know when and under what conditions, the war will be over. The leaders of the republics did not look the undisputed leader precisely because of "dependence" of the people "from above" that creates "the Kiev authorities' room for maneuver - if militia will be defeated, they can expect to have the shock within the republics of New Russia.

It should be stated that the situation continues to be uncertain. The "European Kiev authorities" have all grounds and reasons to consider a truce as a breather before the new stage of the war, the militia of New Russia, solving the problem of "Debaltsevskogo pot" makes up for the loss and solve humanitarian problems (at least part), while remaining ready the new inflame hostilities.

At the moment, the balance of the situation in the Donbass shifted clearly in the Kiev government, but its members are struggling to regain its former position, and even improve it. Unfortunately, the mechanism to ensure the unconditional implementation of the Minsk Agreement, is not, so a truce looks purely temporary.

While the developments are logical - the West will continue to feed the "Kiev European power" and manipulating it, will continue to try to use it to force Russia to comply with the format of Minsk in its original form and not as part of the proposals put forward by the Kremlin. Therefore, a speedy default of Ukraine should not expect, is that the sponsor will have problems, and they will not until the "new Europeans". Most likely, after the offensive potential of the parties in the Donbas dry up during the alleged ceasefire followed by an attempt to work out a new scheme consultation compromises that will advance the Russian Federation is obviously impracticable to replace the Minsk Agreement. West likely will ignore these attempts and to demand the implementation of the September agreement.Therefore, a quick end to the conflict - both military and diplomatic means unlikely. The Russian Federation will continue to try to "bring to justice" for the United States unleashed a war.



Ladyga AI, Ph.D., director of the Institute of History, International Relations and Social and Political Sciences of the University of Lugansk Taras Shevchenko, city Lugnask

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