March 14, 2015
German analysts believe that the US game in Ukraine is directed not so much against Russia, but against the EU.
For almost fifteen years of political experience I have accumulated a large number of friends among politicians and officials around the world. Have friends in Germany. This they told me that Germany would insist on delaying the entry into force of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU, because their economic forecasts, Ukraine will default. I shared this information with my friends on Facebook, and later it was confirmed. Now, we talked about what caused the change in policy of Germany and France in relation to Ukraine. Published losses from the imposition of sanctions against Russia in the EU - 21 billion euros. This is mainly losses from the sale of government-subsidized agricultural products. But the real loss as German analysts say, much more. They call worth over one billion euros.
European Union publishes sixty billion euros a month. Now the euro fell against the dollar by 25%.Usually accompanied by a decline of the euro increased exports, and usually these exports is largely directed to Eastern Europe and Russia. Export growth usually leads to higher incomes and, consequently, to an increase in living standards. It always happens, but not this time. Because of the sanctions against Russian export growth has not occurred. That is, every German has become poorer by twenty-five percent.
Due to the devaluation of the euro less use as a reserve currency. Other countries have transferred part of their reserves in Swiss francs (this explains its growth), and then because of the limited capacity of the flow of the franc currency reserves went to China, Japan and others. Hence, in an indirect way, the total of one trillion euros. Benefit from the conflict in the Ukraine has received only Poland - a thirty billion US dollars from escapes from the war the citizens of Ukraine as an investment. The German analysts believe that in fact the American game in Ukraine is directed not so much against Russia, but against the European Union.
The Germans believe that the new Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras with the filing of the United States has taken an uncompromising position not only to reduce costs in Greece, but also for their tacit support raised the issue of the return of the old German Greek debt that is laying a mine under the entire European Union. Europeans have great concern is the increase in gold reserves BRICS countries, in particularly Russia and China. They suspect that the BRICS countries will introduce its own currency immediately after the start of China's SWIFT.
Then in the world there are three major reserve currencies: the US dollar is widely distributed, a weak euro (currency as stagnated in Europe) and the currency of the BRICS countries, confirmed by gold and oil. Europeans worry that the euro will not sustain this kind of competition. That is why Angela Merkel shared her vision of the situation with Francois Hollande, and together they took the initiative to participate in the negotiations with Ukraine and Russia in an attempt to stop the war. Europe changed its attitude to the situation, not only because he believes that the United States uses the events in Ukraine as a way to destroy the European Union.
Recent talks in Minsk "Norman format" changed attitude to Poroshenko Merkel. I must say that for the current Chancellor of Germany the word "federalism" has a negative connotation, as for Poroshenko. By the way, here's my point of view coincides with the point of view of Merkel. I recall that in the Ukraine against me prosecuted for incitement to federalism. So, from the words of my European friends, Angela Merkel agreed on a draft protocol Poroshenko in Minsk, where the word "federalism", then flew to Moscow to coordinate the text with Vladimir Putin. He allegedly laughed and said that the text is large enough, but added that "Peter deceive." Merkel did not believe it. And in vain, because the president had to re-negotiate the protocol and Lavrov - to rewrite all the text on the knee.
This is customary for Ukrainian businessman Petro Poroshenko behavior was perceived negatively Merkel and Hollande. After Minsk talks entered a team in almost all EU embassy to raise prices and complicate the conditions for obtaining visas for Ukrainians.Today, a citizen of Ukraine is easier to get a visa to the United States than, for example, in Germany. Above all, as well as break the information blockade around the events in Ukraine, the trip left the Bundestag in Donetsk and much more - all this creates in the world a negative background for the Ukrainian authorities.
Even Zbigniew Brzezinski said that Ukraine should not be taken into NATO. It can be concluded that the Ukrainian authorities will not be happy. The fact is that if Poroshenko picks Minsk Agreement and information policy will continue in the country, aimed at the escalation of hostilities against the federalization of Ukraine, the old Europe will increase the pressure. Some steps have been taken and now, it is no wonder that Europe has limited the loan from the IMF in the amount of 17.5 instead of $ 40 billion, as requested by the Ukraine and the United States wanted. However, keep appetites US is becoming easier, after all, the head of the IMF Christine Lagarde - French, and the US share in the authorized capital of the IMF has fallen from 40% to 20%.
I think that is not in vain leaders DNR and LC made an appeal to EU that Ukraine does not fulfill its obligations under the Minsk agreement. The fact is that in the process of pressure on Ukraine European Union could reach up to the imposition of sanctions, including personal against Ukraine and individual representatives of Ukrainian authorities. In addition, according to my friends, due to changes in the position of Europe in relation to Ukraine and Russia this summer European sanctions are likely to be canceled.