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Will the world ever see PEACE ??? Ask the USA...
______________ members of the Minsk talks after the meeting said that the world had a chance. Chance for peace. The world needed this chance.
After the start of the next offensive of New Russia, after the formation of the boiler Debaltseve and threats of attacks on Mariupol, Europe was seriously scared. Urgent visit, which made a few days ago Merkel and Oland in Moscow was called just that. European politicians have felt the threat of spread of the conflict. Oland even told reporters that if the parties fail to agree, could start a major war. Why are all so scared? How big war? The offensive Novorossia can cause permanent partition of Ukraine, and this means the following:
1.Change of borders in Europe, which the EU is afraid of as a precedent that could trigger a chain reaction. Separatism in Europe - it is reality. Basques, Catalonia, Venice, even in Belgium are in the mood to divide the country in half, and the city will be very controversial Brussels. You may say that Europe's borders are already redrawn when united Germany when Yugoslavia was divided. Yes, but it was done in the interests of Germany and the EU. A division of Ukraine, and all that can follow them - it will be against the interests of. Dangerous not the fact of redrawing the borders, but the fact of redrawing against the interests of the West.
2. The emergence of New Russia or even the DNI and LC will be a step to return historical Russian territories into Russia. Even if Moscow does not recognize these republics at once, much less join. But what will happen tomorrow? After a while, the place Putin will inevitably come someone else and can start consistently recognized - DNI, LC, New Russia, Transnistria. Recognition and affiliation. Ossetia, Abkhazia. And the series could continue. The reunification of Russia lost territories, the reunification of the Russian people and the Russian people and other peoples, with whom he lived in the Union of one big family, can gain traction and it will end, nobody knows. A reunion of the peoples and territories separated in 1991 - is essentially a revision of the results of the Cold War. Will the US quietly look at it? Of course not. And if you decide to Washington and London to prevent this - so there will be war. And it can be a very big war.
3. Modern Ukraine - is an anti-Russian project, created by Washington. In fact, it's an American colony. American property. In any event, the Washington considers it as such. Accordingly, the offensive of the New Russia - it is an attack on American property. If the Ukrainian army will step to take positions, will the United States for these silently watch? Of course not. Of course, take action. And what? United States, in contrast to the Kremlin and other clowns do not believe that diplomacy is the only solution to such situations. Never considered. The US has never hesitated to use force to solve their problems, the only difference is that in some cases these were American troops, in other cases, NATO forces, in the third case created various groups such as the Afghan mujahideen, which Washington supported to fight the Soviets, and then they founded the Al-Qaeda. None of these options - no American troops, neither NATO nor the terrorists as a participant in the war on the territory of Ukraine to Europe are not needed. Because Russia certainly take retaliatory measures and, again, there will be war. Great War. Thus, we are dealing with a serious, very serious threat of war. However, the Heads of State yesterday said that with the signing of agreements in Minsk next world had a chance.
Let us estimate the chance.
The signed version of the Minsk Agreement is very similar to the agreements that were signed in September. The principle is the same. The cease-fire, the withdrawal of heavy weapons, the holding of local elections, the exchange of prisoners, the withdrawal of mercenaries and so-forth. Even the line along which must pass section between LC / DNR and Kiev Ukraine, the former. Under the new agreements, so straight and says that the line should be in accordance with the agreements of 19 September. The efficiency of previous agreements we already know, they were inefficient. That is why it was necessary to gather again. You can even make out exactly the points where the new agreements would be disrupted if they will be carried out at all:
1. Immediate and comprehensive cease-fire. At this point, do not specify what to do with the boiler in Debaltseve. Kiev does not recognize even the existence of the boiler. DNR representatives and LC have already stated that they do not understand how to get out of this situation. APU from the boiler to produce "the world" did not agree. In the meantime, the APU are in the boiler fire is unlikely to stop at all. And if the fire did not stop - either party may ignore all the other clauses of the agreement, citing the fact that the enemy violates the very first condition. This is somewhat similar to the situation with the Donetsk airport, which from September until January fire did not stop almost no one day, regardless of any agreement. In general, at the first point of agreement causes a lot of doubt about its feasibility. Perhaps the only chance - to eliminate the boiler for two days, until February 15, when the points of the agreement to enter into force. But that would mean a meat grinder, what about peace agreements both parties will be willing to forget.
2. Withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both parties. As withdrawal of heavy weapons last time - we all know. Barely taps.Somehow it seems to me that this time will be the same way. By the way, the withdrawal of weapons will not save from provocations. Bus and under Volnovaha Kramators'k who were allegedly fired militias were out of the affected area. Who fired them? Kiev claims that militia. So where is the guarantee that after the withdrawal of artillery again will not be fired any city, to which the enemy does not even get it?
3.Ensure effective monitoring by the OSCE. The OSCE monitoring will certainly lead.Formally, this item is executed. Once this is unlikely to help. Because the OSCE since September monitors. And violation of previous agreements by the Ukrainian side has repeatedly recorded. And then fixing it did not go. Just fought protocol. Any liability for breach of agreements Kiev still never bore, and if there is no accountability, the work of the OSCE - it is simply the accumulation of statistics. Statistics for history.With the same success can be regarded as a raven.
4. Start a dialogue about the modalities of the local elections in accordance with Ukrainian legislation. Dialogue start no problem. Began, talked dispersed. But I bet that did not agree. Because "elections under the laws of Ukraine" for the DNI and LC will mean that the field will proteges Kiev. And Donetsk to Lugansk lose control of local administrations. This would be tantamount to the elimination of the DNI and the LC inside. And if you do not agree, then sooner or later begin to shoot again. If at least one day cease.
5.Provide pardons and amnesties. This item is sure to meet stiff resistance in the Verkhovna Rada. I can not imagine how nationalist, and sometimes even ultra Rada will accept amnesty laws of those she considers to be terrorists and separatists. But at this point there is at least some chance, unlike the previous ones.
6. To secure the release and exchange of all hostages. Perhaps the only point which the parties will be able to perform. Anyway, the last time fulfilled. True militias who visited in captivity, returned beaten and wounded, and some of the stories are not lived up to release. But still this paragraph more realistic than others.
7. Ensure the delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid. Ready to believe that fulfill.
8. Social transfers such as pensions. I am convinced that pay Donetsk Kiev nothing will happen. And residents of the DNI and the LC too. Because it's own state employees and retirees reduces and delays payments to which the Donbass here to say? The reason is simple - Kiev has no money. True IMF promised to grant the loan of 17 billion dollars, but the funds have something to spend and no pensioners. Especially without Donetsk pensioners.
9.Restoration of full control over the state border from the government of Ukraine. The implementation of this item will mean a complete blockade of the DNI and the LC, which is extremely dangerous for the republic. Therefore, this item will pop almost certain. How exactly - does it matter?
10. Withdrawal of all foreign armed forces, military equipment, as well as mercenaries. Run can. But how to check? Each party can always claim to have seen the other side of mercenaries - Russian or Polish, Chechen or American. How to prove that the item is made? In any way. Performing this item is reduced to the request of the parties to end the conflict. If the parties concerned to end the conflict - they will do the item and will not invent mythical mercenaries. But! If the parties have a mutual interest to end the conflict and to agree, it would be no meetings in Minsk was not required. Therefore, I think that about mercenaries and foreign armed groups we hear. And hear more than once.
11.Constitutional reform in Ukraine. Requirements for reform specified in the agreement include the "right to self-determination of the language." This means the Russian language on the territory of Donbas. As this reform will be carried out through the Verkhovna Rada, I assume in advance. Wrapped her there. And if not wrapped, the distorted beyond recognition, pervert and get something with which DNR and LC are unlikely to live as planned.
Paragraphs 12 and 13, in my opinion no interest and the weather did not already do.
Total: What are the chances Minsk Agreement to perform?
So 8 out of 13 points will almost certainly disrupted. 2 of 13 points mean an imminent liquidation LC and DNR. I believe that the agreement signed in Minsk does not even begin to run properly. Please sides about a problem Debaltsevskogo boiler - APU will go a breakthrough, and VSN will repel the attacks. And so irresistibly days, then weeks. If after some time Debaltsevsky boiler will be able to discharge, the problems begin with the performance of the following items. And at each stage there may be a provocation that someone someone accused of disrupting the agreements and thereby justified his refusal to make concessions. For example, the Verkhovna Rada did not want to grant amnesty to those who are considered terrorists and separatists - what to do?
Stage a provocation. Shoot at Mariupol, Kramatorsk or Volnovakha and blame it on the militia. There have agreements and another weak spot. Even if the heavy weapons would be taken for a specified distance, where is the guarantee that Kiev will not find a more long-range system? What do long-range Tochka-U is not on the arms of the APU, does not mean that it can not appear.Because behind Washington and Kiev have if the US decides to continue the war - they will continue it. Find a way. There are aviation. Let the aircraft was severely reduced during the summer campaign, but Unsighted shock and can serve as a provocation.
Remember downed Boeing. Still, there are drones. And there are drones drums. In general, the way to always find a provocation. Anyway, it all comes down to the desire of the parties to terminate or continue the war. While the parties are willing to continue the war, they will find a way to disrupt the peace agreements. Moreover, that rip them is a snap. And the desire of the parties to continue the war dictated by one fundamental factor: Half Donbass does not need anyone! Ukraine needs all the Donbass. And Novorossia need all the Donbass. And while none of the parties will not get Donbass whole or vice versa will not reject it, the world will not.
Novorossia (LC and DNI) can not refuse Donbass because it would mean self-destruction. This is for the DNI and LC matter of life and death. And for the Russian people is a matter of life and death Novorossia project. For the Russian people and the rejection of the militia of New Russia will mean that thousands of victims were in vain. It will be a defeat, and defeat is not just the West, from the pro-American in Kiev, and also on the defeat of fascist elements from pravosekov and Bandera. Try to answer, whether the Russian people ready to accept such a defeat? But in Kiev, too, are not yet ready to abandon the Donbass . For Ukrainian nationalists is also a matter of honor, they are ready to fight for the principle of "victory or death", all the more so to the death they basically send others and themselves increasingly lead.
Kiev could compromise, declaring Donbass autonomy. It retained to a region within Ukraine, at least in terms of Kiev and the West, while it DNI and LC could continue living independently.Transdniestria. Actually, this is the only possible compromise that can be seen in the current situation. Its implementation requires only calm the radical nationalists, on the streets and in the Verkhovna Rada. The task is difficult, but doable. It would be the desire and political will. But Kiev it is not. And we can safely say that this is not in Kyiv. If it was only in Kiev, the conflict would have been settled long ago.
Imagine that Washington and Brussels want peace, and Kiev wants war - what will happen? Of course, the world. Because Kiev is very dependent on the EU and the US and pursue an independent policy against all is not capable. The EU and the US to Ukraine is at the moment all - and credits, and evroassotsiatsiya, and the path to NATO. If the EU and the United States were consolidated for an end to the conflict, he would have stopped long ago. All dissenting politicians in Kiev just broke up would lyustrirovali, stuffed into garbage cans, and ordinary nationalists arrested or burned in the boilers. The problem is that either the EU or the US in the world in Ukraine do not want to.About the EU think everything is clear, the peace Voyage Merkel and Öland first to Moscow and then to Minsk demonstrated that European leaders are concerned about the war. They want peace.
So what happens? Who wants war? Washington! is Who 'they planted Ukraine Democracy, which resulted in the Maidan? Who helped organize maidan? Whose senators were on Independence? In whose embassy ran Yatsenyuk Paruby other? Who sat in the chair of Ukrainian President? The head of intelligence of some country flew on a visit to Kiev? Who recognized Poroshenko 5 minutes before the polls closed? And the list can go on, go on, go on, and the answer to all questions will be one - Washington. Modern Ukraine - an American project created against Russia, in order to pressure to Russia and to violate Russia's relations with Europe.Modern Ukraine - it is in fact an American colony.
And behold, the head of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France have come together to negotiate peace in Ukraine. At that Ukraine itself, which is an American project created just to violate the relationship between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. Guess what will be the result?
Signing is obviously impracticable, utopian, unworkable agreement - a very natural result. Only this was needed and the United States, so that no one of anything fundamentally agreed. If Ukraine turned Washington into an anti-Russian project created for the separation of Russia and Europe, whether Europe and Russia and Ukraine agree on the world?
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