Minsk up: "it's better than super." Ukraine should become Novorussia
The results of the Minsk talks "Norman Quartet" should be considered as an intermediate position in the course of a long chess game for a new world order. And Russian world has made in Minsk strong and precise move that strengthens our position in the further struggle for Ukraine. You need to put aside emotions and see what really was recorded in Minsk. The junta nominally got everything it wanted, in fact, not getting anything, but Russia and the Republic of New Russia went to all the concessions, in reality, without sacrificing anything. And this is an extremely important diplomatic success. About it - in the material a special correspondent On the eve in Donetsk.
From the outset, Russian Spring in the Donbass should clearly distinguish between legal and factual side of the issue. In fact the DNI and LC, fortunately, have long been a Russian protectorate. But the challenge is not to go ahead by military means, and to use this insturment for the legal establishment of a protectorate over the whole of the former already Ukraine (or mostly). That is the crux of the matter: the actual protectorate over the DNI and LC - is a tool, not a goal. It is in any case should not be the goal, because if this is the goal, then Russia had to send troops back in April to join the NPT and the LC and - to lose the rest of Ukraine. Anyway, here it would be military intervention, because, as in the Crimea, no bases, no autonomy, nor its elected parliament in the Donbas was not. Hence, the Donbass - a bottleneck through which Ukraine will move toward Russia. And this movement, it is now obviously be irreversible.
In Minsk was signed in the course of long-term (no need of illusions) party, leading to the mat - Russia's accession to the greater part of the former Ukrainian. Which parts - it is a matter of further struggle, because in history nothing is predetermined in advance. Apparently, the situation is the end of 2013 was a prelude to further events that only occur in the future. Recall, then the western regions of Ukraine openly against another legitimate authority and declared that they would not obey her and "go to Europe" on their own. Zapevalov, as always, were three areas of Galicia (Lviv, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk), and modest several adjacent. Here is the ballast, it seems, will be the catalyst for the destruction of "one of Ukraine" and the flagship of separatism. Everything happens exactly the opposite: not the eastern region will rise against the occupation regime, pulling Ukraine to the West, and the Western region will break away as we move towards the former Ukrainian rest of Russia .
Within this line, however, is inevitably a problem of Transcarpathia, historically gravitating to Russia, but separated Galicia. But it will be in the future, besides the lack of common borders is not an insurmountable obstacle (remember the Kaliningrad region). But it's all in the future. Now the Russian world has made great success.
Incidentally, note, Vladimir Putin again reiterated to reporters DNR and LC , twice, when he said that "Kiev authorities still refuse direct contacts with representatives of Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republic" and "representatives of Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republic .. . surrounded by a large group of 6 to 8 thousand. man. " Clearer hint of support and impossible to think. And Putin, as in the end of August, again describes in detail the military successes of the militia, making it clear who is behind this.
As for the "return to Ukraine" republics Novorossia, no return will not. The historical process is irreversible. In this regard, recall the idea of one of the founders of Eurasianism Peter Savitsky that there are facts-facts-precursors and echoes, especially when a change of historical epochs. So "local elections under Ukrainian law" (which is not a fact that will take place, and if it takes place, under the terms of the NPT and LC) and other gestures toward the vanishing of Ukraine and is an echo of the passing epoch. In the Donbas not order raised the Russian flag to drop it in favor of the circumstances. Enough and diplomatic movements 1) simulating the "territorial integrity of Ukraine", 2) demonstrate Russia's commitment to all international standards, 3) drew insanity Kiev junta and 4) leading to the establishment of control over Ukraine by the change of power.
On the first day of the signing of the Minsk-2, it became clear that the document was not signed for him to perform, and to alter the Ukraine, and in strict accordance with the signed it the same document. Zaharchenko and Carpenter 's not just leaked (and possibly be, and in agreement?) that "in the near future we will see a very different Ukraine." Also, they were told that the opinion of the republics, though different, but can not ignore the position of the three great powers, act as a guarantor that "Ukraine will change under the pressure of Donbass" and it is given a chance.
"Victory will still be behind us, and no matter what method - political or military" - this phrase carpentry, perhaps, is the best characterized are signed in Minsk agreements. And get away from responsibility in Kiev will not succeed. The leaders of Russia, Germany and France not to come to Minsk. So that the junta is now two ways - either run now, or "no memoranda will be no more" (Zakharchenko). In the first case they have a chance to repeat the fate of Yanukovych and save their skins in Russia, hoping for a pardon. In the second - only to flee to the West, but there they were sure to find a car crash, because they know too much. An exception could be the only Klitschko , who, according to political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko , too stupid, that I could tell something.
Achieving Minsk-2 is that the responsibility for the inevitable failure of the agreement will be the Kiev regime, which will certainly be overthrown, but not Russia, and the United States hands. Republic of New Russia won valuable time. There is no doubt that another coup in Kiev, and it is very likely, Donbass and other regions will not meet the protests, and ... a big surprise for the West. In the meantime, the DNI and the LC has already begun to mobilize necessary to strengthen and increase the size of the army. Russia and New Russia significantly improved their positions before any further intensification of hostilities, or in the case of a new coup. And everything - absolutely legally, because the militia Minsk Agreement guaranteed amnesty.
You should not sprinkle ashes on the grounds that these agreements Kiev mode recognizes allegedly standing over the DNI and LC. This is the nominal step back, which is needed to make two real steps forward. If Russia really was interested in reintegrating back into the Donbass former Ukraine, all would have looked completely different. But the fact of the matter is that Ukraine - is an alibi that allows under its "umbrella" to bring a new level of military and political republic of New Russia. Will Russia be allowed to hold a referendum on May 11 if the actual objective pursued to preserve the territorial integrity of Ukraine? Never. The referendum was the trigger that began reconstruction of Ukraine. And it is not to be separated from her New Russia and to Ukraine itself became Novorussia. And since it all started with Donbass, it must maintain a formal framework in Ukraine until at least until further process will require the DNI and LC.
In this regard, there are two questions that we do not undertake to answer. The first is that it implies Putin in January calling DNR and LC. Whether future diplomatic recognition, whether short-term future of the republic Ukrainian federation, or just moral support republics. It will be clear in the coming months. But the answer to the second question, we can not know, at least in the coming years. How is it that Russia (which is questionable) managed to convince not only the former king of Donbass Akhmetov hold a referendum, but the junta - do not keep it? What was the interest of both parties and the enemy who were these mysterious interested parties, save that future historians.
On the same reintegration DNR and the former LC Ukraine, which many are terrified, speaks the following fact. What happened in the Donbass May 25? That's right, nothing. No ukrovlasti in the Donbass not and originally planned. Russia, for all formulations ornateness, respects and is based on the will of the people of Donbass, which was announced Foreign Ministry still May 12th. Just because of the circumstances, Russia can not RECOGNIZE outcome of the referendum, for this, must follow the recognition of two independent states. But in the summer of the fiercest battles were fought for control of the border is not just. The border is already ours, and if ukrovlasti want to control it, only by agreement with the DNI and the LC and only after the constitutional reforms (Minsk Agreement), ie, border they will never get it. This is the meaning of the agreements - went to all the concessions junta, not really sacrificing anything. And like all the junta had not received anything really.
Vice-president of the European Parliament Jacek Czarnecki succinctly and very accurately described the result: "This world is definitely more beneficial Moscow than Kiev, because the de facto political sanctions Russia's achievements."
To avoid unnecessary misunderstandings about "draining" immediately after the signing began hints at the truth behind the Minsk Agreement. Zakharchenko and Carpenter did back in Minsk. Later in Donetsk Zaharchenko reiterated that the implied constitutional reform, which is obliged to hold Kiev, - "this is the actual independence of the NPT." The fact that the current Kiev authorities there will be no constitutional reform, it is clear. More precisely, the constitutional reform - it is the law the way for a change of government, and the hands of the Nazis, who immediately after Minsk started screaming about "national betrayal." It is in this sense that we must understand the words carpentry, that Ukraine will become another state. In Minsk signed Novorossia not surrender and capitulation of Ukraine, only delayed. As a joke Parliament Speaker Andrew Purgin DNR , "there is a whole bunch of conditions by doing that Ukraine will become another state. We eventually will engage in dialogue with the state, where Poroshenko in prison, and with Yatsenyuk Turchynov shot."
That is why the very next day, DNR and LC began to "inclusive national dialogue" with Kiev, which he himself signed, offering junta constitutional amendments, changes in tax laws, and so much more that Kiev has to react somehow, actually engaging in direct negotiations with the republics and indirectly recognizing them. Otherwise - and it is clear that this is the case and will take place - all the blame for the failure of "national dialogue" goes to Kiev, rather than the Republic of New Russia. So the inevitable liberation of the territory in the hands of the army of New Russia will be isolated. They offered Kiev world and "all-Ukrainian dialogue", but he himself refused. So the struggle continues for the New Russia. And no one knows who will be the legitimate authority, and who will be separated from someone.- See more at: http://www.nakanune.ru/articles/110081/#sthash.lUAOeTjC.dpuf