Saturday, February 14, 2015

Briefs from the Military Analyst Boris Rozhina 14/2/2015

Kharkiv - New Russia
Today at 10:30 am
Briefs from the Military Analyst Boris Rozhina

_________________________________________ On the eve of the expected armistice that officially should start with 0 hours on February 15, in addition to fighting in the area Debaltsevskogo boiler continues and diplomatic maneuvers around a truce with the appropriate information support. 

1. The US is expected to continue to accuse Russia that it will break the truce and that it will be responsible for it, at the same continuing to talk about the Russian troops advancing on Debaltseve showing unconvincing picture does Russia not incriminating, but what has long been accustomed to and from duty charges, as Duty shrugged, especially against the background of the scandal with fake photos that Kostya Grishin fed pindostanskomu Senate. The question of sanctions, the United States continues to be linked to the full implementation of the agreements concluded in Minsk, and the question of arms supplies from the agenda has not been removed. Preparations in this area will continue - Canada has openly stated that provides its own satellite for transmission of high-quality photos from space junta (as if the United States before without much hype did not provide data junta satellite reconnaissance) + in case of failure of the armistice, will supply weapons to the junta. Saakashvili also, who was appointed adviser to Poroshenko, will coordinate the delivery of foreign weapons in Banderostan (Ukrainian territory occupied by the junta). Old threats still voiced (if the truce will be broken, then the US will begin deliveries of weapons. 

2. At the same time, representatives of the DNI and the LC confirmed the presence of certain guarantees from the EU, according to which Kiev still go to a truce, plus last G-7 issued a statement in support of the Truce and veiled threats against those who break it. With the submission of the EU resumed discussion of the possibility of a new summit in Astana already (or in Minsk), which is supported by the EU and the management of the national republics. Actually in Europe all understand the precarious situation and intend to if no one picks truce urgently dorabatayvat situation further, to avoid immediate escalation that will break all previous game. Under this deal tomorrow and will meet the UN Security Council which will consider another resolution on Ukraine.

3. In matters of border with the Russian Federation DNR and LC sides were just very clear - the United States continue to insist on the transfer of control of the border junta Yatsenyuk just yesterday said that the issue of borders is one of the most important, and the mouth of the Russian Federation as usual Karasin said that first let implement their obligations, and then Russia will consider the boundary. Actually, as in summer, border control and passing through it flows, is one of the main levers to influence the situation. In fact, the situation on the border is one of the key markers of the situation that Russia is not going to let go of their hands. US understands this, and try to present to maintain control over the border for the DNI and LC as a fact of failure Minsk Agreement. De facto, the United States there continue to stick to their line to minimize Russian influence on the processes occurring in the territory of Ukraine decaying. 

4. Regarding the refusal to grant amnesty to the junta leadership DNR and LC followed by alaverdy Purgina, according to which if signed by all will realize, that Poroshenko will go to jail, and Turchinov and Yatseniyuka shot. At the same time representatives of the DNR and LC openly say that choices have to be represented by representatives of the Ukrainian "party of war". In the future, the law of Ukraine on elections to be displayed particularly legislation DNR and LC on elections to local government bodies. The final text must necessarily be consistent with the representatives of the Republic. The election will not be allowed political forces that participated in the aggression and spoke in favor of aggression against the DNI and LC " from the boiler under Debaltseve where fierce fighting continues, surrounded by troops of the junta to release just not going to. At the same time attempts to release the boiler continues and it is not clear how the situation will develop in the area Debaltseve February 15 that will largely depend on including the results of the February 14 fights (if it will have to break the junta corridor or not). For if the boiler will remain, and the front rise, will result in the same conflict, as well as with the Donetsk airport. 

5. Regarding the story of Savchenko, Russia has denied maturing Poroshenko promises that it would soon be released, and said that if released, within the limits of legal procedures in accordance with the results of the investigation. Apparently, this question will be of the nature of the pending and will largely depend on the outcome of the armistice. Immediately include it in the principle of exchange of prisoners of war "all for all" are not going to. In general, as long as it looks now while in a practical way would be only a matter of truce, and it is highly doubtful that even this night immediately cease fire, rather, we will observe the gradual extinction of intense fighting with the transition to autumn form of war with occasional shelling and clashes. Along the way, will continue diplomatic maneuvers around the whole pack items Minsk Agreement, around which we see a lot of contradictions. So far, the two sides are the information war around the armistice, in the event of unforeseen circumstances declare that the armistice to blame the other side.

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