Wednesday, October 1, 2014

For The Record:Crash of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 Evidence

For The Record:Crash of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 Evidence

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General ACLOS Investigation Thoughts

Brilliant Analysis of the Propaganda

American writer on RT.com Brilliant and funny. And sadly true. Well worth a read. KatKan (talk) 18:47, 27 August 2014 (UTC)
I didn't read it all, but it's excellent. A couple steps up from T.B. Hinchey-class writing. I didn't notice any lazy jet-blaming. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:06, 27 August 2014 (UTC)

Considering Possibilities

Only so many theories have been seriously proposed for what happened to MH17. But it seems worthwhile to create a master list of basically all logical possibilities to consider - what has and hasn't been proposed, by whom, why? Anyone can start or add to a sub-section below to conmment on that possibility. I inserted simple notes to many, hoping they're not too controversial - suggest or, hey, make a change as you see fit. I sign here for the initial list and notes only. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:58, 16 August 2014 (UTC)
All possibilities: Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was brought down by (A Buk, B Jet, C Other) operated by (1 Russia, 2 Kiev, 3 Rebel) in an attack that was (a accidental, b intended, c intent + error)
A Buk/SA-11 (supported by some evidence, claimed by Kiev, presumed by Western powers)
  • A.1 Russian (Kiev's story - known stocks - border and logic issues)
    • A1a - accidental (intended legit/defensive downing - possible)
    • A1b - intended (not likely - Russia would stand little to gain and some to lose)
    • A1c - intent+error (SBU theory - intended to hit Aeroloft civilian flight, blame Kiev, invade - hit MH17 by mistake)
  • A.2 Kiev (known stocks, alleged movement at the time) (why: make seps/Russia look bad) (how: snuck in totally, approval snuck in too, or fired from outside rebel areas after all)
    • A2a - accidental (intended legit/defensive downing - not likely having snuck behind enemy lines to do it)
    • A2b - intended (most likely - going behind the lines suggests false flag intent)
    • A2c - intent+error (they aimed for the Aeroloft flight, etc. - possible)
  • A.3 Rebel (no known stocks, some evidence for, some against - rebel Buk is/was the Western presumption outside Kiev)
    • A3a - accidental (intended legit/defensive downing) (presumed by intelligent outsiders who blame them)
      • (variations: launcher supplied by Russia, seized by separatists, brought by defector - crew came with it, or not - etc.)
      • (variations: sliding scale of culpability from drunk and negligent operators with all blame, to blameless but fooled by false signals and such)
    • A3b - intended (not likely, soft implication from Kiev against the "terrorists")
    • A3c - intent + error (intent of a criminal kind still seems unlikely, so all error options probably under A3a.)
B Jet (supported by some evidence, promoted by many revisionists) (var: used air-to-air missile, used auto-cannon/other, or combination)
  • B.1 Russian (had to violate Kiev's airspace without being mentioned)
    • B1a - accidental (intended legit/defensive downing)
    • B1b - intended (not likely - Russia would stand little to gain and some to lose)
    • B1c - intent + error (triple unlikely - it's just a possibility slot)
  • B.2 Kiev (denied by Kiev)
    • B2a - accidental (intended legit/defensive downing) (of what?)
    • B2b - intended (implication of those proposing it - to make seps/Russia look bad)
    • B2c - intent + error (possible)
  • B.3 Rebel (no known jet holdings - no one proposes this)
C Other nothing seriously suggested. Lets not go digging for all outlying theories, but if one worth listing emerges, it can be option C and Other will be D, etc.
moved material to Category talk:Ukraine#Ruban's Third Force - theories might say "perpetrator unknown," and thus reason and motive ... but this list is all about actual possibilities more than theories. To the truth, the perp is known, and these are all poss. truths. Most people's theories will fit a slot here... --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:01, 22 August 2014 (UTC)

Questions Raised

In the end of the day, we may not be able to pronounce a forensic conclusion, for the rest of the world to accept, as we may not have full information or all the needed expertise. Perhaps the best to hope for will be to RAISE (a rather short) list of main questions which we hope the official investigation will not ignore. I think it will be worthwhile to identify such questions (may be followed by voted answers or something of sort and some supporting arguments).
In my list, it would be questions establishing basic facts, like
  • impact coordinates
  • where blast(s) were coming from
  • confirmed evidence about launch and launchers (a.k.a " any high-resolution photos with known coordinates and times?")
  • navigation and control methods (a.k.a. " can it curl from forward right to back-left?")
  • land based or air based launch? (a.k.a "can satellite see well under the cloud?" )
  • anything to learn from radar data (publicized or otherwise)?
  • and any other relevant confirmed evidence to consider
Once all of that is in stone, will be good time for theories.
--Chingachgook (talk) 19:56, 11 August 2014 (UTC)
Question #1, since it's looking like a Buk fired from Snizneh ... what does that really prove as to who was running it? Nothing. That's why the State Dept. has to add on the Youtube and twitter evidence where it doesn't even matter if those are the real people"admitting" it was them. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:17, 11 August 2014 (UTC)
No confirmed evidence for a Buk, or from Snizhne, yet. Knowing who runs that would be perfect. --Chingachgook (talk) 00:08, 12 August 2014 (UTC)
Definitions of "confirmed" might differ, but I've been recommending people at least prepare for that coming true, in case the SU-25 thing doesn't pan out. There's a burnt field, somewhere quite near where that supposed launch contrail photo was placed to. And that, I just saw, supposedly had its ex/if data verified as July 17, 16:25:48. So it might be that figuring who runs that becomes totally crucial. So far, just the fact of what it was and where it was fired is supposed to be proof it was not the party that was equipped for this - physically and morally - and has benefited from it. Anyway, we're on it somewhat - who controls the Buks, whose got moved - what does "rebel-held" mean when someone's trucking in a anti-aircraft unit just after Kiev primed the locals with a bombing of civilians in Snizneh two days before? Stuff like that I think has extra value to develop. I should get to it... --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:29, 12 August 2014 (UTC)
If there is confirmed photo of launch, that would go under one of already listed items. With electronic evidence on social networks, I am not sufficiently knowledgeable, but presume it is too easy to edit those to fit any agenda, easier than to refute. Government releases, like satellite photos, is different, as they can't change stories overnight and have something to loose if proven fake. Faking hard physical evidence would be fairly impossible. It is good to know who is to blame of course. (But most people would already have their own intuitive answer,which is not likely to change, so how exactly we are going to focus on such an issue? --For myself, the best outcome will be for truth to come out, wherever that may lead).
--Chingachgook (talk) 19:28, 12 August 2014 (UTC)

Witness Accounts

  • BBC Russian video since pulled? Did they really even produce this? The locals all say there was a fughter jet that turned and left a different way. I put it here until I transcribe the subtitles. --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:53, 28 July 2014 (UTC)
Eyewitness #1: There were two explosions in the air. And this is how it broke apart. And [the fragments] blew apart like this, to the sides. And when …
Eyewitness #2: … And there was another aircraft, a military one, beside it. Everybody saw it.
Eyewitness #1: Yes, yes. It was flying under it, because it could be seen. It was proceeding underneath, below the civilian one.
Eyewitness #3: There were sounds of an explosion. But they were in the sky. They came from the sky. Then this plane made a sharp turn-around like this. It changed its trajectory and headed in that direction [indicating the direction with her hands].
(that was easy - Gleb already did it) At that page is the video of the lady fighter in Slovyansk (so sad) a month before - June 18 - relating how the air force there recently had a jet hiding behind a civilian plane as it bombed the city. She thought it was to provoke a shootdown of the airliner and get the separatists branded as terrorists. This both offers a precedent for a real July 17 possibility, and a precedent for some folks to think that's what they saw or should say they saw. It will come down to what lines up. Most of this is vague, but witness 3 seems fairly astute and describes a turn I believe Russian radar also described. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:25, 29 July 2014 (UTC)
  • Reuters: “From my balcony I saw a plane begin to descend from a great height and then heard two explosion," said one separatist from nearby Krasnyi Luch who gave his name only as Sergei. He denied the rebels had shot the plane down. "This could happen only if it was a fighter jet or a surface-to-air missile (that shot it down)," he said, noting that the rebels did not have weapons capable of shooting down a plane at such a height."
Note, on seeing the video, this seems to be post-shoot-down. He probably saw it nose-diving as it "descended." Something booms as it falls (was it twice? or an echo?) - I suspect it's one of the wing fuel tanks., since one of the wings is fully on fire. This accounts adds nothing but a description of what we can see for ourselves already, and his assessment is opinion - a bomb on board could have done it for all he knows. --Caustic Logic (talk)
A local farmer said: ‘I was herding my cows and heard a buzzing noise. ‘I lay on the ground and thinking only that it would not hit me and my cows. Then I looked and saw that something turns sharply and two big wings were flying. Bang. And something explodes. It came from eastern side, from the side of Sokholikha mountain.’

Photo Evidence of Crash Scene

Two days ago ANNA News uploaded a video of some kind of presentation of photos from the aftermath and clean-up operation. Camera shows a Laptop with an apparently rather large collection of photos, a woman is operating and explaining what is shown (in Russian). As to the nature of it, this is really gruesome stuff showing the victims as they ended up on the ground, and I only made it a good minute in. The video description seems to allege what Strelkov reported his men reporting to the outrage of everyone: Smell of chemicals, many naked, no or very few blood, in decay.
Doesn't fit there ("debunked topics"), because the photos are certainly not debunked and evidence independent of any conclusions. So it's here. Should be watched by someone who can judge what they see and have a good stomach. --CE (talk) 12:11, 31 August 2014 (UTC)
It might've been flippant to put the theory right into debunked, but it made a fair point that it sounds really dumb on the surface ... but this is presented as evidence, okay. I had a look, indeed some horrible images - people broken and smeared in several different ways (look out esp. from 4:49-5:08). I'm guessing these are mostly next morning photos near the site? Ones further out, found later, will be rotting. I'm not expert enough to settle this, but fresh bodies normally should not have these signs we see: darkening skin, black lips, etc. - lack of visible surface blood - (heard about) bad decay smell.
But then again, bodies don't normally - suffer massive decompression / oxygen cut-off / etc. - move at high speed as they're torn up (smeared people = wiped clean?) - have all their tussues and guts torn up so badly - and do all this in mass numbers at the peak of summer. No maggots yet - they must have been pre-killed somewhere there were no flies, (or gassed with a pesticide-like poison!) or very quickly before loading ... no, my semi-educated guess is still some combination of these factors will explain what we see, even in these select photos. But at least, this lets us see more of it ourselves for comparison. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:49, 31 August 2014 (UTC)
Yeah, it sounds bizarre but Strelkov mentioned it himself saying he just relayed what he was told from the ground. Anyway, to speculate about it we first need more details about the claims. Went back to ANNA to see if anybody subtitled it ... but they don't seem to do that the same way as in Syria. But I noticed just recently they have a German team which produces little news shows. Didn't look into it yet. But hey, there it is, a German version with hardwired subtitles. Which means there is no transcript to copy & paste like with the CC function. Which means I will have to watch at least a bit of it. *sigh* Maybe later, maybe tomorrow.
From the German description I can already say that the woman alleges to be an eyewitness who arrived "immediately" at the scene. Description is written in sceptical language. Her claims: Very few Europeans (as opposed to Asians, I guess), disgusting smell, rotten bodies. They checked Laptops and USB-Sticks and found "no photos" younger than October 2013. Let me guess (I don't know out of hand), that's when the other MH disappeared? --CE (talk) 00:20, 1 September 2014 (UTC)
I'm so not trusting this narrative - these are also people who were (kept alive?) from ... no MH370 wp was in March this year (that recent?) - All I can find October 2013 related is an alleged Israeli acquisition of the jet's twin (sale in Florida, October 21, 2013 per Chris Bollyn (quack) He speculates it would be rolled out for another false flag attack, unless maybe people were alerted. So ... maybe passengers bought at the same time at that plane, kept alive but not allowed to take pictures, for nine months, but killed long enough before the July crash date they were just then rotting ... lot of fake families implied for the missing new (alleged) victims ... lot of proof in the rotting bodies and nine-months lack of new photos ... --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:38, 1 September 2014 (UTC)
FTR here is a detailed German language article about the claims in the video, which makes them more accessible per autotranslation than the embedded subtitles. --CE (talk) 11:25, 10 September 2014 (UTC)
If you think the subtitles are worth it, you can cover the whole screen besides that and still even get time-stamps. Like, at 0:40 is she saying here are more blood free body parts, and the wet pavement under them is from the day's rain? (tried typing into Google translate - my High School German mostly catches "the ... of ... and" - but still "a "wet" aureole were umwolkt" didn't help enough) --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:38, 1 September 2014 (UTC)
What nonsense. Anyone who would go to this much trouble would surely EASILY put some more recent photos on the USB sticks.
As well as fake families,they'd have to create fake social media going back years, plus fake old school/work friends and neighbours. In 10 countries. Oh and a fake AIDS conference.
None of these idiots has yet come up with WHY? what benefit does anyone get from faking all this? If it was meant for putting the blame on one country or another, they could have got THAT bit right and shoot it in a way that 100% identifies that country.
Most if not all the passengers would have been killed by the shock wave of the missile detonation, causing internal injuries including mashing of the lungs and intestines. Black lips etc would be from lack of oxygen. Then while the plane was thrashing around/diving/spinning they'd get thrown around, among seats and luggage also flying around. This would cause numerous injuries. These would hardly bleed at all, because the hearts were no longer pumping. Blood in their veins/arteries would be barely liquid by the time they hit the ground a few minutes later.
This is consistent with what Strelkov's people were reporting - bloated blackening bodies with "no blood" where they expected to see blood. Any mangled bodies these guys would have recently seen were fresh killed in front of their eyes, a different result altogether.KatKan (talk) 10:58, 1 September 2014 (UTC)
FWIW Double plus that! Simple explanations win over conspiracy theories every time --Charles Wood (talk) 11:09, 1 September 2014 (UTC)
Not worth much without examination of the evidence. As Sir Arthur Conan Doyle once said: "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." Just saying. ;o) --CE (talk) 11:46, 1 September 2014 (UTC)
I suppose this one's been well-enough piled on. All points including the last seem totally valid. I'm still not inclined to pursue it, but it might be worth double-checking. If things besides decay can be ruled out or whatever, ... eh, I'll just have to see.--Caustic Logic (talk) 00:18, 2 September 2014 (UTC)

What Can Forensics Prove?

Investigation moved to /Forensics
We're now getting organized, with List of MH17 airframe parts - a picture of how the plane was impacted will emerge. The BUK alleged (Wikipedia) has radar guided missiles that can track, turn, change altitude, etc. So I conclude the damage won't tell us if the missile was air-to-air or from the surface, or what direction it was fired from. It's still worth knowing, of course, but ... could use some discussion maybe on what we can/can't/should be aiming for here. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:40, 28 July 2014 (UTC)
The damage will tell us it was an air-to-air missile with rod warhead fired from the front, that exploded when its proximity fuse passed the cockpit window. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:04, 28 July 2014 (UTC)

Fighter Jet?

This point is disputed, and thus not proven to everyone's satisfaction. But it's clearly a big question: was there, or was there not, a fighter jet trailing MH-17 before its shooting down? Russia says yes and has produced radar data they say supports that. Kiev says no, and may have supplied radar evidence (did they?) Some locals report seeing it, but no one believes "subhuman" "terrorists..."
Whether or not the jet brought down the airliner is another story, but obviously related.
(Russia's details for - forthcoming)
counter-arguments: Interpreter Mag offers what it claims are serious questions about Russia's fighter jet claims. They don't start out dismissing that there was a radar return the Russians followed, but question - reasonably - if it was really a jet. They latch onto the translation "hover" describing what the "jet" did for four minutes after, and note "to “hover” requires a helicopter," and "the fastest helicopter in the Ukrainian arsenal" is too slow to trail MH17, so ... in case he meant circle (obviously) the article suggests that it's all but impossible for a fighter to circle and loiter in that small area, so probably that also is a clumsy lie, which by the end they're forced to call "Moscow's Magical Mystery Jets." --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:34, 31 July 2014 (UTC)
Oh, and James Miller added "A MAJOR problem with Russia's latest claim, that a Ukrainian Su-25 was tailing MH17. According to the plane's own manufacturer, who has incentive to inflate the SU-25's performance numbers, that aircraft can't even fly high enough to be 3 kilometers away as Russia claims." My response to that is ... sorry what? --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:52, 31 July 2014 (UTC)
On that point, I understand the SU-25 is a ground attack craft, that normally operates under 25,000 feet, while MH17 was at 33,000. Still, it might be able to go higher, and could still be 305 km away plus or including 8,000 feet or whatever. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:15, 7 August 2014 (UTC)

Air-to-air missile?

This is disproved. It's confirmed a Grad Missile was used. GRAD Missile downed aircraft :-) --Charles Wood (talk) 10:00, 20 July 2014 (UTC)
Pilot confesses? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 00:00, 29 July 2014 (UTC)
I started out skeptical, checked, and didn't see where they explain just what he said, to whom, etc. Our readers will need more alleged details. I'm still skeptical, obviously. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:58, 1 August 2014 (UTC)
It's satire. Says so trilangually in bold red right there at the top. Original is here on a quite funny satire site. It's full of valid information but the premise of the piece is to show how propaganda would react and integrate such a confession into their narrative. --CE (talk) 12:37, 1 August 2014 (UTC)

"Carlos"

Okay, what the heck? This has been called a hoax (as noted even at the first link) but I'm not so sure. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:03, 4 August 2014 (UTC)
10:21 – 17 de jul. de 2014 Autoridades de kiev, intentan hacer que pueda parecer un ataque de los pro-rusos “Kiev Authorities, trying to make it look like an attack by pro-Russians”
10:24 – 17 de jul. de 2014 Ojo! Que puede ser un derribo B777 Malaysia Airlines en ukraine, 280 pasajeros “warning! It can be a downing, Malaysia Airlines B777 in ukraine, 280 passengers”
10:25 – 17 de jul. de 2014 Cuidado! Kiev tiene lo que buscaba “Warning! Kiev have what they wanted”
10:25 – 17 de jul. de 2014 Vuelven a tomar la torre de control en Kiev “[Miitary] has taken control of ATC in Kiev”
10:27 – 17 de jul. de 2014 El avión B777 de Malaysia Airlines desapareció del radar, no hubo comunicación de ninguna anomalia, confirmado “The Malaysia Airlines B777 plane disappeared from the radar, there was no communication of any anomaly, confirmed”
2. The mysterious Spanish airport controller source. A mysterious Twitter account, @spainbuca, purporting to be a Spanish air traffic controller at Kiev's international airport named Carlos tweeted out that two Ukrainian fighter jets had shadowed the Malaysian airliner and that Kiev was behind its downing. In May, the Spanish-language channel of Kremlin mouthpiece RT interviewed Carlos and blurred out his face because he claimed he was in danger for criticizing the Ukrainian government.
However, the Spanish Embassy in Kiev has no record of Carlos, reports Fox News Latino. “We have no knowledge of ‘Carlos’ having been in Ukraine. There is no record of his passing through the Consulate, and no one from the (relatively small) Spanish colony knows him,” it said. Carlos’s Twitter account no longer exists.
Questions:
  1. What was he saying in May that was newsworthy? May 8, Espanol - says he's in Madrid at the time Does he seem shady like a possible disinfo agent?
  2. Was he back in Ukraine still (allegedly) working ATC on July 17, or is his knowledge supposed to be from the community?
  3. Does he claim direct knowledge the fighters brought down the plane, or just speculate based on their presence?
  4. Does his account deletion similarity to the Graham W. Phillips case mean anything? Or is this just a fakester who called it quits as soon as questions arose?
  5. How does the embassy know if they do or don't have a record unless they know just who he is? Isn't he supposed to have been anonymous up 'til now? (deduced from Spanish + ATC? = zero? That could work)
  6. Has anyone anywhere heard from him since? --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:03, 4 August 2014 (UTC)

Escorts?

Iranian defense expert Babak Taghvaee believes the mistake was caused by the fact the Malaysian Boeing 777 was escorted over eastern Ukraine. Taghvaee is always very well informed and an extremely reliable source. Therefore, after he provided some details about this activity of the Ukrainian Air Force on ACIG forum thread about the war in Ukraine, we contacted him for some more insight. Here’s what he wrote to us.
“When the Crimea crisis began, the Ukrainian Air Force air command center quickly forward deployed six Su-27s to the Kulbakino AB. Since beginning of the crisis and the Russia intervention, the 831st TAB has the important task to provide air defense as well as security of whole country. Six fully armed Flankers have always been in the sky especially when the other Ukrainian Air Force airplanes such as transporters and attackers like Fulcrums and Rooks were in the East of Ukraine,” explains Taghvaee.
“But when the Su-25M1 was shot down by the Russia Air Force 6969th AB’s MiG-29 on Jul. 16, the situation and condition became more critical than previous days and more Su-27 sorties were conducted to confront Russian MiG-29s. I believe those two Su-27s were not in sky just for standard practice in that day [Jul. 17], I believe they were involved in HAVCAP (High  Asset Value Combat Air Patrol) mission sortie in that day.”
Hm - an escort patrol starting just that day? Did Russians even shoot down the jet forcing that decision right then? High value asset it was, once it was shot down and blamed on Russia. This could use some further searching, but one Q is why Carlos (or his sources) would be so alarmed at the fighter jets if they were known "escorts." And also, why would Kiev decide on this and then deny it? That looks bad. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:12, 4 August 2014 (UTC)

Did the Jet(s) Down MH17?

I don't think so, but it's possible. I hear now the evidence is conclusive, it's proven and all debate should cease. An OSCE expert said x was "like" y. OMG x is same thing as y proved!
Petri, I see in comments here your working theory:
MH17 was brought down by a frontal attack by a fighter jet. The jet fired a "machine gun" or autocannon through the left side windshield right at the captain. The direction of fire was from slightly to the left and slightly above. The bullets left perfectly round holes of about 20 mm diameter in the upper frame of the windshield. Further down the left side the holes became elongated and irregular, some with the appearance of exit holes. The smaller irregular holes on the side are most likely the result of fragmentation rounds mixed in with armor piercing bullets. Some of these may have bounced off the side and exploaded outside.
Not to be too harsh, but I just want to lay out all my questions, in the sort of aggressive way they just tend to run at such times. 1) 20 mm rounds - others have specified a SU-25 with 30 mm cannon as most likely. What are you proposing? A different craft, I guess? Fair enough - SU-25 doesn't seem to be proven, just a good guess. 2) Is there any radar support for a frontal attack from the E-SE (frontal)? The mentioned jet was trailing 3 or more km behind (W-NW) 3) altitude - that was a problem for SU-25, made to work below 25,000 feet while MH17 was at 33, and was hit slightly from above. But you're thinking something else - might well answer that automatically 4) why can't warhead shrapnel of about 20 mm explain this? Or do we know the SA-11 can only have a different size? Because round machine-gun-like holes seems to be just what they normally do. 5) What is up with the Buk launcher moved in that direction, parked right on the flightpath, and apparently having fired a missile towards the jet that would impact it just about head-on like this theorized jet attack? Did they set that up to create the appearance, while using a fighter instead to mimic it? I'd ask where did the missile go, but I guess you could argue the field was fake burnt, the tracks just made, and the contrail photo is from another day or something, 6) Is the jet attack theory really the best explanation for what we see or just the one that's overly tempting because it could smoking-gun pin it on Kiev? --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:15, 7 August 2014 (UTC)
"The available images of the fuselage of MH17 support the conclusions of Mr Bociurkiw," he correctly notes, while mischaracterizing both. The OSCE semi-exprrt said the parts of the plane he meant were hit with a spray of small, high-velocity projectiles that "almost looks like machine gun fire," but not quite, to his untrained eye, having seen nothing like it before to compare to for sure. Why Mr. Quinn and so many others insist on pretending this proves it was a machiney-type-gun is just a mystery. Buk shrapnel should almost, but not quite, look like machine 30 mm auto-cannon fire
"Regardless of the precise way in which MH17 was brought down," even if it's by a Buk missile as the best evidence suggests, he should point out how Kiev and its psycho false-flaggers were the ones with a known capability either way and the motive to do this on purpose. Instead, he says "at this point we can draw some reasonable conclusions: a BUK missile was most likely not involved." Oh. Well, to some, it almost looks like we can. Close enough? --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:55, 2 September 2014 (UTC)
I'll just point out (again), 30mm cannon shells either produce individual 30mm or larger holes on the skin if they pass through undetonated; or produce an even larger hole or crater if they detonate on contact.
The panel damage seen is way smaller than 30mm and there are no characteristic surface splash marks indicating surface detonation
I'm guessing the persistence of this rumour is a combinaton of aggressive fake propagandising by Russian spinmasters (GB I'm looking at you) together with a characteristically dumb audience who are perhaps misled into confusing 30-cal with 30mm - though they may even be dumber than that and not know what 30-cal is or even what 30mm is.
For those still confused. 30mm is around 1 1/4" diameter. 30-cal is around 3/10 of an inch --Charles Wood (talk) 23:09, 2 September 2014 (UTC)
Most of these experts never even looked at the available images. They just parrot theories they've read. At most they'll produce the image which originally accompanied the theory. Readers now just vaguely believe whichever one they first liked. I have not seen any new data or information for 3 weeks at least. KatKan (talk) 23:52, 2 September 2014 (UTC)

General Discussion

Slightly informed comment on air defences

See vineyardsaker. Certainly biased, but internally reasonably consistent --Charles Wood (talk) 02:12, 19 July 2014 (UTC)
I'll just add various rumours / propaganda I've heard so far.
- US Satellites tracked the missile
- Russia did it (at least morally)
- Ukraine did it (for continuing the battle)
- The plane was deliberately diverted to the location it was shot down
- There was a storm over Crimea causing the diversion
- add your rumour here
What I haven't heard yet is the terrorist bomb theory. If the plan had crashed in say Poland that would have been the only game in town. --Charles Wood (talk) 02:12, 19 July 2014 (UTC)

Tin Foil (Hat) theory of Military Chaff falling in crash video

Video shows man explaing that long streamers in crash video are actually military chaff from a Ukranian fighter shadowing MH17
Military Chaff Theory
Simple debunk. The stuff must have been a metre or more wide and hundreds of metres long to be visible at that range. No such military chaff system has that sizing, least of all one that can be carried by a fighter jet.
The only foil in this video is on the guy's head.
--Charles Wood (talk) 00:09, 20 July 2014 (UTC)
I don't even know what "military chaff" is, but I saw someone mention the streamers, connected to the plane having a cargo including textiles. --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:19, 20 July 2014 (UTC)
No, It seems to me the chaff is falling in the foreground while the smoke cloud is kilometers away. A lucky shot just got them both in the same picture. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 22:23, 20 July 2014 (UTC)
just to belatedly clarify - chaff would be emitted by the plane before being shot down, in the hope of causing the missile to home onto the chaff ather than the plane itself. This is the purpose of chaff. So the chaff could be many kilometres behind the plane. The images in that video most likely WERE chaff, because that video has since been proven to be NOT MH17 but a Ukrainian military plane that was downed 2 days earlier. KatKan (talk) 19:24, 22 August 2014 (UTC)

A Rebel-Held Area

The presumption behind blaming separatists at all is that the blamed surface-to-air missile was fired from an area under control of separatist forces. But most people seem to just presume the entire eastern area (past what line, who knows?) is all rebel turf, with no Ukrainian military inroads anywhere. That's part of why it's taken as so obvious, even though no one's sure just where the firing was from. The Russian military presentation took BUK itself as meaning Ukrainian military. They claim satellite images of them in Kien-run army bases as close as 5 km from Donetsk, moved on the 17th to a site closer to the shoot-down area, then moved away again.[1] It seems the "just where" question is far more important than most presume (that is, if there was a ground launch that even mattered, as I suspect) Does anyone have a good analysis of the general control-accessibility situation on that day? Some nerd might have made a map that's reliable? --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:24, 30 July 2014 (UTC)
For the NATO narrative on the Novorossiyan Buk you can look at the Ukraine@war. He will you the exact location in Snizhne (the town that was bombed two days before, with 13 civilians killed inside their apartment block). I am no longer interested. All that interest me is the technical aspects of the of the crash investigation. What hit the MH17 where and when.
P.S. – There is supposedly a video somewhere of a Buk fired. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 12:46, 30 July 2014 (UTC)
WSJ has a crappy map: How MH17 Came Apart Over Ukraine – Fails to show any of what the title claims. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 12:53, 30 July 2014 (UTC)

The Defector Theory

In an attempt to explain away the existence of evidence which shows Ukrainian troops firing the missile that brought down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, Washington may be preparing to fix the intelligence by pinning the blame on a “defector” in order to absolve Kiev.
As we reported on Monday, award winning former AP and Newsweek reporter Robert Parry was told by an intelligence source that the U.S. is in possession of images which show men dressed in Ukrainian Army uniforms operating the Buk missile system which shot down MH17. If proven accurate, such information would completely eviscerate Washington and Kiev’s already shaky narrative that Russian-backed separatist rebels were responsible for the attack.
The U.S. State Department now appears to be shifting the emphasis of its narrative to discount the possibility that Kiev itself was responsible for shooting down MH17. As the L.A. Times reported yesterday, “U.S. officials said it was possible the SA-11 [anti-aircraft missile] was launched by a defector from the Ukrainian military who was trained to use similar missile systems.” Blaming the incident on a “defector” would allow the U.S. to explain why the culprit was wearing a Ukrainian Army uniform when he shot down the airliner.
Sounds intriguing, and Robert Parry is usually pretty reliable.Seems worth a section here to see how it pans out. Skipping the prior Infowars article, This from July 20 seems to be the original explanation by Parry at Consortium News. I'm not encouraged by the details - the images aren't video or photo, but satellite. Parry mentions the limits of what satellites can see, but rightly points out they could see any Buk system component. Russia's satellites saw the ones run by Kiev's pro-America junta, first at their normal base, then somewhere else on July 17. What you can't as likely see is smaller details like the exact pattern on a person's shirt, or what the label on a bottle says, if even its shape. But he says:
What I’ve been told by one source, who has provided accurate information on similar matters in the past, is that U.S. intelligence agencies do have detailed satellite images of the likely missile battery that launched the fateful missile, but the battery appears to have been under the control of Ukrainian government troops dressed in what look like Ukrainian uniforms.
The source said CIA analysts were still not ruling out the possibility that the troops were actually eastern Ukrainian rebels in similar uniforms but the initial assessment was that the troops were Ukrainian soldiers. There also was the suggestion that the soldiers involved were undisciplined and possibly drunk, since the imagery showed what looked like beer bottles scattered around the site, the source said.
Ooh, bad move when, as John Kerry, knows, it's the separatists that are the drunken ones in the area. As for where the image was taken, the evidence suggests it was a separatist-policed one. It probably was non-defected Kiev soldiers running it, but false claims to that effect make that possible truth harder to see, in the end. I think Parry's source stopped being credible prior to this latest. Anyone else more inclined to accept this evidence? --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:16, 5 August 2014 (UTC)
Everyone is trash talking everyone else. I'm not believing any of it. It was partly cloudy that day and you'd have to be very lucky to have a satellite pass overhead just when a BUK gets launched. It is much more likely that whatever the US has it got from a spy plane, such as the RC-135 they have operating in the area.(On July 18 some Russian MIGs approached it and it had to fly off over Sweden without permission). https://medium.com/war-is-boring/u-s-spy-plane-reportedly-violated-swedish-air-space-to-escape-russian-fighters-424d05e11bd5 Sorry can't find it now, but another story said land radar had locked onto them, which is why they left in such a hurry. KatKan (talk) 03:17, 14 August 2014 (UTC)
Russian press conference: "As far as we know, there was indeed a US satellite flying over southeastern Ukraine on July 17 from 17:06 to 17:21 Moscow time." That will be 16.06 to 16.21 local. _If true_, this is likely to show at least part of the trajectory. No need for satellite's beer bottle photos. -- Chingachgook (talk) 03:44, 14 August 2014 (UTC)
As I recall, somewhere on the news there was a claim that there is no US radar data (too far) --Chingachgook (talk) 03:55, 14 August 2014 (UTC)
US: “We saw the take-off. We saw the trajectory, we saw the hit. We saw this aeroplane disappear from the radar screens. So there is really no mystery about where it came from and where these weapons have come from." [1] (Hope not on a fake photo)? --Chingachgook (talk) 05:00, 14 August 2014 (UTC)
The photo that popped up for me showed lots of flowers and photos of Diana, Princess of Wales, i.e from 1997. So in true The Australian tradition a fake. FYI The Australian is one of the least accurate papers in Australia and runs a very heavy anti-Russian and pro-Israel line. --Charles Wood (talk) 05:06, 14 August 2014 (UTC)

False-Flag Theories

Andriy Parubiy again?

Pepe Escobar names Andriy Parubiy as a possible suspect.
Carlos’s assessment: the missile was fired by the Ukraine military under orders of the Ministry of Interior - NOT the Ministry of Defense. Security matters at the Ministry of the Interior happen to be under Andrey Paruby, who was closely working alongside US neo-cons and Banderastan neo-Nazis on Maidan.
-- Petri Krohn (talk) 02:16, 21 July 2014 (UTC)
From what I've read on the guy, he's likely enough to be behind this that, really, all Ukraine's airspace should be closed until he's no longer on the loose. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:24, 30 July 2014 (UTC)
Robert Parry introduces Parubiiy in his July 20 article, and mentions:
It was this same Parubiy whom the Post writers turned to seeking more information condemning the eastern Ukrainian rebels and the Russians regarding the Malaysia Airlines catastrophe. Parubiy accused the rebels in the vicinity of the crash site of destroying evidence and conducting a cover-up, another theme that resonated through the MSM.
Without bothering to inform readers of Parubiy’s unsavory neo-Nazi background, the Post quoted him as a reliable witness declaring: “It will be hard to conduct a full investigation with some of the objects being taken away, but we will do our best.” --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:16, 5 August 2014 (UTC)
FTR, Andriy Parubiy resigned yesterday. Same day the following came out. --CE (talk) 11:33, 8 August 2014 (UTC)

Valentyn Nalyvaichenko

On August 7, SBU head Valentyn Nalyvaichenko introduced a new narrative (release on SBU website / archived snapshot) apparently contradicting their released audio tapes that early on helped form the narrative of an accidental shoot-down of MH17 by "rebels" who thought it was a military plane. Now the story goes that the Russians planned to shoot down an Aeroflot plane in a false flag operation blaming it on Ukraine, to have a pretext for invasion. But the "Russian mercenaries" moved their Buk to a different location than planned and mistook MH17 for the Aeroflot machine with their own people they wanted to kill. What exactly they prepared to blame it on Ukraine (maybe Ukrainian uniforms or something?), or why a plane full of AIDS researchers and Dutch children couldn't be used as a pretext (Russian people don't care about Dutch children?), is not explained. Nalyvaichenko has been implicated by his predecessor in the sniper killings on Maidan, together with Andriy Parubiy.--CE (talk) 11:33, 8 August 2014 (UTC)
  • Human Rights Investigations, Aug. 7 - In Ukraine, the lunatics have taken over the asylum This relates a SBU statement of earlier in the day outlining their latest theory. As said before, Russians did it, with a system they brought in and took right back with them. Most people have presumed there's no motive for Russia to shoot down an airliner into the separatist's area on their behalf, and it must have been an accident. The SBU's thinkers decided it was intentional, but with an accidental part too. They meant to shoot down a Russian airliner, but set themselves up in the wrong town, so they hit MH17 instead. The original plan was to use dead Russians blamed on Kiev as a reason to invade Ukraine, but when it was other people dead, he said never mind. Awesome theory, no? --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:44, 8 August 2014 (UTC)
Beat you to it, put it here where it belongs... bizarre. Interesting that Parubiy resigned (see above the subheadline) the same day this came out, isn't it?--CE (talk) 11:55, 8 August 2014 (UTC)
Awesome, tag-teamed it with similar technique. Parubiy, huh! That gave zero reason, didn't it? It's not 'to spend more time with my family.' No, he notes on the way out, he still belongs at the "forefrongfront." --Caustic Logic (talk)
FTR RT says "On Monday, reports appeared in Ukrainian media about Parubiy’s resignation. The Local Zn.ua website, citing its source, said that the security chief is due to resign due to diverging opinions with the country’s president. The media stated that Parubiy decided to resign after he was ordered to declare another ceasefire in Kiev’s military operation in the southeast of the country, but he refused to do so." --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:22, 9 August 2014 (UTC)
This article announces an investigation into the "Southern Cauldron" disaster and calls Parubiy the "main author" of the plan that led to it. Maybe that's the reason. --CE (talk) 16:47, 10 August 2014 (UTC)
Yeah, we got it the first time already. The guy is a knucklehead. --CE (talk) 12:49, 12 August 2014 (UTC)

Cyber Berkut leak

Main article: Crash of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17/Cyber Berkut leak

SBU wiretap video

Moved to /SBU Audio Evidence

Corbett report

Petri just put this on the main page https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gWlAARb0fN4
I ASSUME it is going to be a false flag nonsense. After 8 whole minutes of introductory waffle and advertising, he still has not started on the topic, so I am not watching any more of it. It is titled "MH17 FULLY EXPOSED!! You Won't Believe The SHOCKING TRUTH About the Ukraine FALSE FLAG ". they are right, I won't believed a word of it. Don't bother with it. KatKan (talk) 01:15, 27 August 2014 (UTC)

A False-Flag Defector Theory

Here's one way the facts might wind up going: an SA-11 was fired from outside Snizneh, as alleged, and that's what killed MH17. The Buk launcher was even welcomed in by local commanders, heard saying so in audio communications that could prove true (or not), was sent to the spot by them, and then disavowed in embarrassment. And also the launcher came from Kiev's arsenal, the shootdown was not a mistake, and the crime carried out by pro-Kiev false-flaggers in the proud Euromaidan tradition. Here's how that could all be so:
Some secret Right-winger in the army playing a disgusted defector makes contact with local rebels on July 15. He heard about the apartment bombing that day in Snizneh, and about the junta's plans for another run at the same place two days later. But, he said, he could get access to a launcher at the base north of Donetsk, a disloyal guard who'd take a bribe (small, covered) plus even a couple local defectors trained to run it, and even a truck from his part time job - the boss wouldn't notice it missing, he's such a clueless junta-supporter... Yeah, he could have it all mobile, drive it himself, make all the contacts, have their guys check it out, it works! It'll shoot down anything. They can get it put in place and wait. In this version, the "SBU wiretap" audio was maybe their defector's own phone - he was undercover the whole time, "wearing a wire" - the launcher was a trojan horse, and its crew were evil and knew just what they where they were and just what they were doing.
On the rebel end, having no clue there will be a mass murder ensuing, and seeing nothing criminal in preventing a second junta air force atrocity, happily waved the thing in. They were supposed to meet someone in Snizneh, but drove off mysteriously. Then MH17 came down and, in dread and shock, the rebels decided to dis-acknowledge the whole deal, and no one's simply come clean about it yet. But the "defector" meme coming out might be spurred by its partial truth, along lines kind of like this, and not from some satellite photos. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:10, 15 August 2014 (UTC)
Hey CL, apart from your vivid imagination, do you have even just a whisper to back this up? And if we're speculating, how would you like to forget Snizneh and look at Chornukhyne as the launch site? At the time was on almost no man's land, under Don Cossack Control. KatKan (talk) 14:42, 15 August 2014 (UTC)
Do I have evidence? Yes. There are these pieces we're considering, supposed to point that way, that might or might not. This theory here is sort of a "worst case scenario" where all those come out true, or an idea for those who believe all those clues, to show how alternate explanations still exist even then. Im am fairly convinced of the core parts, much less on the calls, but this is more a though exercise than "my theory," although it's not far from my working theory and become it if the audio is genuine after all. --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:34, 15 August 2014 (UTC)
Yeah, similar to KatKan question is bugging me as well . Why not to look, let's say, perhaps somewhere else? (hopefully without creating sudden burst of fighting or urgent land management work just right exactly there, if possible )? --Chingachgook (talk) 14:56, 15 August 2014 (UTC)
yeah, early intercepted call said ""These are Chernukhin folks who shot down the plane. From the Chernukhin check point. Those Cossacks who are based in Chernukhino." and nobody's ever looked there. It is same distance as Snizneh and 90 degrees to the flight path so an easy shot. KatKan (talk) 15:24, 15 August 2014 (UTC)
I certainly would not know why a reputable news-maker would pay travel expenses going to Snezhny but not this other well-flagged place nearby. The only new comment I have to make here is that this is a big expensive truck, not a flag costing one grivna/ruble {nor is it a can of some chemicals). It is your best air defense, and there aren't many. So it is either off front line or it is there, somewhere, for a real strong reason. --Chingachgook (talk) 19:23, 15 August 2014 (UTC)
Okay, the other town being named is one clue for another site, and no one looking could be why there's nothing else. I'm not sure how Chernukin connects - If the burned spot is up there, or there's another one... maybe the defector made his contact with those guys, and so his little team was called part of theirs - Miner brought them. As for why the other area, it was indicated and they say it had burn marks at the end (can't be checked and ruled in or out), so they went and it appears to have been smart. In the other direction, a mention the responsible people are from there, not even that they fired from there. But at least it's not pulled out of thin air. If there becomes more to support it, I'll consider more. --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:34, 15 August 2014 (UTC)
We may want to put the audio story in order separately, someplace, if it was not done. I was following it initially, but now references are hard to find.
Agreed. This happens here sometimes. Hoping it helps, I made a page for that subject and moved comments from both of you guys over there. Hope I didn't mess anything up in the process - please review. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:27, 16 August 2014 (UTC)
You did indeed delete a whole bunch of stuff instead of "moving" it. Restored here. --CE (talk) 11:42, 16 August 2014 (UTC)
As I recall (but do not have links saved), this is Bes recordings, glued together from genuine pieces. (I believe Bes said pieces are genuine early on himself) The first piece, mentioning Enakievo, is about a different earlier episode--as he himself responded. His response about second piece, mentioning Cossacks, was much more evasive, something like 'if every block post has a Buk, than I'll be in Kiev'. But it is clear that at the time of event, he had reason to believe that something was going on over there. That does not say this happened as he thought, Cossacks may be shooting pistols not Buks or whatever; but it may looked like something is launched from there, or whatever the case might be. This does suggest some notable event at that location. I do not see genuine evidence pointing to the current official version; it is more consistent with somebody trying to put a false flag there so that all attention of social networkers go that way. Chasing this flag further is a waste of time in my opinion, and is unlikely to produce anything new which is not known already. Looking the other way, even pointing out there is SOME other way, might. (Actually, it looks like attempts were made to place SEVERAL false flags, and than whatever was picked up , was supported by some further noise). --Chingachgook (talk) 23:28, 15 August 2014 (UTC)
(Coincidently) just above I posted an alleged proof of audio fakery of some SBU-released audio, likely from the first batch. As I said, I didn't look into it really closely. Maybe worth doing so. Claim is that it was cut together from several audio tapes. --CE (talk) 23:57, 15 August 2014 (UTC)
Bes in the audio (perhaps glued from pieces) does say Cossacks from Chernukhino block post shot the plane down, those Cossacks _standing_ at Cherknukhino. Why everybody is looking the other way just beats me --Chingachgook (talk) 00:09, 16 August 2014 (UTC)
This brief piece on Chernukhino Cossacks is disconnected from the first piece (about Miner, apparently another rebel) and from discussion of discovering that it was a passenger plane and of the bodies. Chernukhino piece is timed at 16.33 on the crash day. First piece (Miner) is timed earlier, actually, at 16:40, and talks about a different location (really bad gluing skill here; this miner thing is most likely from another day, and I recall that was claimed in discussions which followed. ) Gluing is beyond any doubt; but individual pieces sound genuine for my ears. So he does not actually say it was his Cossacks or what they shot was a passenger plane; just that (some) Cossacks standing at Chernukhino shot (some ) plane, and than it cuts off; rebel blame is rather what this gluing order is trying to convey on us. I would certainly check this out. --Chingachgook (talk) 01:56, 16 August 2014 (UTC)
I've gone back to early things to refresh my memory. And the whole tone of voice was different then. Today it is all propaganda and fantastic stories from everyone.The first 2 days everyone sounded genuine, spoke unthinking,not for effect. So I am thinking, things said early are more likely true. Yes that video with the telephone calls was from 3 separate calls, and at least one maybe not from July 17. The one about Yenaklevo I think is another day. KatKan (talk) 00:37, 16 August 2014 (UTC)

Debunked topics

Moved to /Debunked topics
This link http://adam1baum.blogspot.fi/2014/08/another-journalist-exposes-mh17-false.html
just added to the main page under "Analysis" is FULL of items already debunked. Are the "analysis" items being added without comment? just to collect them? KatKan (talk) 16:16, 20 August 2014 (UTC)
Yes, basically the main page is for pre-scrutiny source material. Analysis is mainly to collect them. I had a quick look at the blog post, but noticed most of the topics were debunked long ago. Or should be debunked. For example, it seems that MH17 may have flown a different route on previous days, but there were plenty of other Asia flight in the Donetsk airspace. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 20:51, 20 August 2014 (UTC)

Warhead damage

Moved to /Forensics#Warhead damage

Radar Evidence

Moved to /Map#Radar Evidence

Cockpit Voice Recorder

Thanks for a start, Charles, will review. I was watching for that, gathering a bit of background on the CVR angle. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:56, 4 August 2014 (UTC)
The cockpit voice recorder of the Malaysian airliner downed over Ukraine is in good condition, the UN civil aviation body said on Wednesday,
"The cockpit voice recorder is in good condition ... the digital flight data recorder is still under review," ICAO said in a statement.
On Tuesday 22 July 2014 at 22:00 inKiev, Ukraine, the flight data and cockpit voice recorders (the 'black boxes') from the Malaysian Airlines flight 17 were taken into custody by the Dutch ambassador and a team of investigators led by the Dutch Safety Board. The Dutch Safety Board requested that the Air Accident Investigation Branch of theUnited Kingdom (AAIB) perform the data download from both the recorders. The recorders were transported to the AAIB's laboratory at Farnborough, arriving 23rd July in the early morning.

AAIB Analysis

Analysis of the CVR from here on should be by the UK Air Accidents Investigation Branch. We shall see. For the record, they came out far less shady in the Lockerbie investigation 25 years ago than the now-fazed out RARDE and its hacks Hayes and Feraday, or the FBI's stumblebum "Tom" Thurman (see The Political Scientists of Lockerbie. I might have been overly fair - Dr. Morag Kerr could tell you in more detail some of the problems with even the AAIB's work there setting the explosion center. But this was 25 years ago, They're only looking at the flight data this time, not the wreckage. We're on the verge of world war, with this the latest information front. They're in London. They'll tell us the truth only if it fits okay with their narrative. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:56, 4 August 2014 (UTC)
The crash investigation of Lockerbie was fine. It was the criminal investigation that was messed up. They didn't do that, FBI got involved, same as in TWA800. Some facts seem to depend a fair bit on who is looking at them. KatKan (talk) 03:30, 14 August 2014 (UTC)

New Straits Times - CVR

THE preliminary analysis of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17’s cockpit voice recorder (CVR) revealed “nothing out of the ordinary”.
A source close to the international investigation told the New Sunday Times that the CVR downloaded by the United Kingdom’s Air Accidents Investigation Branch had picked up the communications between the Malaysia Airlines’ pilot and an unspecified personnel with an air traffic controller (ATC).
“So far, from what the team has heard, there was nothing unusual. The last voice heard was not the pilot’s. No, there was no indication that the pilots saw or sensed anything off,” the source said without elaborating further to protect the investigations.
This may mean that whatever happened was very sudden.
The CVR records all communications on the flight deck, including transmissions with air traffic controllers, discussions between the flight crew, cabin announcements and conversations with any other crew entering the cabin.
In this case, it could provide investigators with some insight into the flight crew’s mindset and emotional state if they had to deal with an emergency in the final moments.
However, it remains unclear if the Dutch-led investigation team had secured the recordings from the Ukrainian air traffic controllers to match the conversations between the ATC staff and the MH17 flight crew.
Asked about the Ukrainian government’s revelation on Monday that the aircraft was brought down by “a massive explosive decompression”, the source said the statement was “unconfirmed”.
The source told the NST that the “initial factual findings” of the probes into the shootdown of MH17 were expected to be released next week.
It is learnt that investigations also centred heavily on the findings provided by the group of three Malaysian investigators, who were among the first to reach the crash site and conduct probes.
The NST was told that instead of the 200 reported earlier, the experts dissecting the flight data recorder (FDR) were looking at 1,500 parameters of the black box.
The FDR records essential flight data parametres at least 10 times per second and defines the aircraft’s flight path and motion.
The data also include primary information, such as position, altitude, airspeed and heading. This allows investigators to reconstruct the aircraft’s flight path.
Also recorded in the FDR are the aircraft’s aerodynamics and engine parameters, including information from the air data computer and sensors.
The Dutch Safety Board (DSB), which is leading the international investigation into the downing of the aircraft, had said the findings would likely provide a picture of how the investigation would proceed.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak had said the aircraft’s flight data recorder and the CVR were among the “hard evidence” the investigation team needed to find out what happened.
DSB spokesman Sara Vernooij was quoted as saying the board would likely say “what it can rule out” and “what it is going to focus on”.
It is understood that the team of investigators at the crash site in eastern Ukraine would carry out verification of information that had been gathered from other sources.
This is to allow them to search for possible new information and collect material for the investigation, such as pieces of the wreckage.
The Dutch police had earlier this week received 150 photos and video clips on their server set up to piece together the mystery.
The photos were uploaded by eyewitnesses from what has been described as “the world’s biggest crime scene”.
New Straits Times CVR report --Charles Wood (talk) 12:30, 4 August 2014 (UTC)

ATC recordings

Initially it was reported that the SBU confiscated the ATC air-to-ground-communication. After weeks the Malaysians asked the Ukrainian ambassador to their country about this, and he denied that it had happened. He said he had no idea what happened to them and no formal request of any investigating party has been made. The Malaysian Attorney General then announced that he will make a formal request to get the recordings. This according to:
--CE (talk) 11:49, 8 August 2014 (UTC)

Investigation

talk moved here from accidental location on Main page KatKan (talk) 08:17, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

Interesting list of countries involved. I wonder how Russia and Germany got on this list? from the above report
"The following countries have contributed (to a greater or lesser extent) to the international investigation team into the crash of flight MH17: Ukraine, Malaysia, Australia, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany, France, Italy and Indonesia. The ICAO and the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) also contributed to the investigation as organisations. The leadership of the investigation rests with the Dutch Safety Board, which will publish both the preliminary and final report. The countries that have a formal role as participants in the investigation under the ICAO agreement will be given access to the draft reports, and may provide feedback. The country leading the investigation may offer other countries access to the draft reports at its discretion." KatKan (talk) 07:41, 23 August 2014 (UTC)
Germany, maybe just provided radar data for the stretch that flew over them. Russia, maybe because they were asked to tell the federalists to let investigators do their work (a stupid but real way of thinking, as if Putin hired all these people). Maybe they were asked for their own radar data too. Indonesia's connection is not too obvious, but I suppose there is one. --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:42, 23 August 2014 (UTC)
Buks--which were widely reported to be suspected rocket and which Ukraine is known to have , is designed and manufactured in Russia, and ONLY Russia would know exact technical details, if those are at issue to the investigation. It is NOT having Russia is what would make zero sense. --Chingachgook (talk) 09:04, 23 August 2014 (UTC)
Good point there. We could use more detailed specs here too (though reliable airliner measures and hole size needs settled first anyway) --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:46, 23 August 2014 (UTC)
It says " on the days following the incident (when Ukraine was still leading the investigation), several Ukrainian aviation investigators visited the crash site briefly several times for investigative purposes." They must have sneaked in disguise as rescue workers collecting bodies. And maybe it was they responsible for some of the "cutting up and removing evidence" and maybe they decently handed it over to the Dutch, whatever they found useful.
Are you SURE the BUKs are made in Russia? I know they ere designed there, so were the Antonovs and helicopters which Ukraine not only makes but exports to other countries. They make radar and big rockets too. Mostly in the south east...8th largest arms manufacturer in the world.

I do not have means to verify that no plant in Ukraine is producing books, but my understanding based on press reports, is that production is in Dolgoprudnyi, Moscow. That makes logical sense and I do not have a reason to think that this report is not accurate . There is no way for me to check this 100 sitting on my chair. Did anybody even claimed that there is a plant based in Ukrain capable of producing Buks? I have not seen such reports. It is possible that some components were normally exported from somewhere else in former SU, but it looks like final assembly at least is near Moscow . (That would also make logical sense, and I do not have grounds to dispute the report [2] --Chingachgook (talk) 01:03, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

Anyway this is only Air Safety report. Criminal investigation if any has to be done by different department (but could be in any country involved). There won't be criminal charges. The finding will be "missile fired by persons unknown". KatKan (talk) 12:58, 23 August 2014 (UTC)
This story looks like for domestic consumption,
Maybe in small part, but mostly it is more like you accused us--where is the proof? With intention to have the matter dropped, not to escalate the matter. This is not working very well, it just gets stuck, because the other part is not paying much attention. They are not trying to work together at all, and so it just reflects that there is a lot of unresolved tension. --Chingachgook (talk) 05:05, 25 August 2014 (UTC)
to make it look like the "West" is hiding something.
A bit of that , --certainly they want to recieve as early as possible all available evidence, and they were saying in the past that they had not. But in terms of tone, the reason is concern with insufficient respect to Russia, so the payback is, hey,go bring us some pointless paper. So there are tone problems, not just substance problems, --Chingachgook (talk) 07:42, 25 August 2014 (UTC)
It refers to
Resolution 2166 adopted by the UN Security Council in July calls for a thorough and impartial investigation into the MH17 tragedy and requires the secretary-general to provide the Security Council with investigation progress reports". which is nonsense, as Security Council has no access, will not do own investigation, and it is being done under international laws by the Dutch. Furthermore, as a member of the investigation panel, Russia knows this. KatKan (talk) 22:54, 24 August 2014 (UTC)
The original story is that separatists shot it down with a BUK. The physical evidence only points to a proximity fuse missile of some sort, several types of these available including air to air ones. USA claims but has not shown satellite evidence of a BUK being fired frm "rebel held territory". This is UNTRUE as satellite would not show the type of evidence they claim to have. So to produce evidence they would have the show what they really have, which must be off a spy plane. Domestically they want to hide that they had enough interest in the area to operate such a plane there, though everyone locally knows. They will not produce this for a criminal case. No criminal case is possible without proof of who (what person or unit) shot it. Anyway the consensus also was that they were aiming at a legitimate military target, so was accidental.
Several other accidental "wrong target" scenarios are possible, and almost as equally likely. If there WERE Ukrainian aircraft near MH17 (and witnesses said there WAS a fighter there) they may have been the target, of separatists OR RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT which of course are not meant to be in Ukrainian air space -- but would not have to be, to be close enough to shoot a missile at one. Alternatively a Russian one may have been the target of a Ukrainian plane. Either way the much larger and intervening B777 would have captured the attention of the missile.
The Russian "radar proof" of SUs being there were fake. But based on some knowledge that there WERE some there. If their own planes saw them, they can't admit to that.
There is enough doubt for all parties to NOT WANT a thorough investigation. Nobody can do one with hopes of blaming the other, without potentially incriminating themselves.
So it will not happen. Whichever way it was, the missile was aimed at a legitimate target. So at most the charge could only be negligence. Discovering whose negligence would only escalate hostilities. Nobody wants that. KatKan (talk) 07:41, 25 August 2014 (UTC)
All signed and should-be-signed chit chat should ideally be on a talk page, not front (article) page. Friendly reminder. (and I say ideally as I and others have done this before and sometimes never fixed it, but it's not ideal) (good talk though) :) --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:07, 25 August 2014 (UTC)
sorry, I started it there, fixed now. KatKan (talk) 08:17, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

Russian demands

He said that Russian delegation has seen no will on the part of the secretariat to display any initiative to promote international investigation of the crash. “We think it important that the United Nations Secretary General should analyze the state of things on the above problems and deliver a detailed report to the Security Council, including his suggestions about additional measures to promote the investigation,” he said.
“It would probably be expedient to look at establishing a post of a secretary general’s envoy on that matter and sending, in collaboration with the OSCE [Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe], a mission to the crash area,” Churkin said.
Russians are annoyed by disrespect, and by sanctions. During the meeting of the UN Security Council, Churkin urged his colleagues to work together to clarify the tragic story of the airliner "without any hints and insinuations" and references to the evidence which has not been submitted. "If you do not submit (any proof) than this is not evidence, but just as we say," фига в кармане " ("the 3-finger gesture exhibited in one's own pocket"- basically meaning bullshit). And such things to investigate such serious situations is completely inappropriate," - he stressed. Russians support the official investigation, -but still emit some noise indicating their annoyance. Also, they may have some beliefs regarding the circumstances.
At the time, it appeared that sanctions and MH17 are linked  ; and despite a progress towards peace, new sanctions were imposed. --Resup (talk) 12:30, 21 September 2014 (UTC)
UN Ambassador Power Addresses Security Council Meeting "we cannot rule out technical assistance from Russian personnel" "If indeed Russian-backed separatists were behind this attack on a civilian airliner, they and their backers would have good reason to cover up evidence of their crime. Thus, it is extremely important that an investigation be commenced immediately."--Resup (talk) 13:14, 21 September 2014 (UTC)

Joost Bosman photos

This one is interesting. Also this. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 00:14, 12 September 2014 (UTC)

References

  1. 10 more questions Russian military pose to Ukraine, US over MH17 crash RT. July 21, 2014

Other MH17 analysis

Half-way decent analysis of the known facts on MH17 in Q & A format. Use Bing translator as google gives up half way through.--Charles Wood (talk) 01:57, 13 September 2014 (UTC)

R-27 long-range air-to-air missile?

Work in progress, please leave alone for a an hour. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 15:56, 13 September 2014 (UTC)

Disinformation?

Chris Harrison on Facebook:
Needing a little help form Novorossiya blogging investigators in regards to this individual who I put a thread up about back in August. He is a very intriguing character that supplied the Daily Mail UK with information that doesn't seem to be mentioned in the ATC to plane transmissions for MH-17 (the ones released by the Dutch Safety Board). The Daily Mail quoted him as saying that the pilots of MH-17 "felt bad". However, this quote and conversation is missing from the DSB's preliminary report. After having performed some minor investigation I found that this same individual was also a key source of misinformation for last years false flag chemical weapons attack in Syria. I'm curious if any other Novorossiya blogging investigators want to attempt to dig deeper on this guy and bring more info to light? He could be somewhat of a 'smoking gun'.

Radar jamming and spoofing?

Just one month before the Malaysian airliner was shot down, NATO ran a live exercise using fighter jets to jam the transponders of commercial airliners and spoof them as military jets by broadcasting a military transponder signal at close range. NATO forces seem to have made the doomed Malaysian 777 appear to be a hostile military jet and forced the separatists to open fire.
The video evidence of military chaff falling at the crash site reinforces the argument that military fighters were very close to MH17 when it was shot down.
The Russian civilian radar data however shows that the MH17 transponder was not jammed. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 05:03, 21 September 2014 (UTC)

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